Flu and the global economy: The butcher's bill

Recession may dampen the economic cost of a swine-flu epidemic THE scares over bird flu since 1997 and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2003 have spurred research into the economic costs of pandemics. Studies paint a grim picture of what swine flu could mean for the world economy. For example, World Bank economists estimated last year that a pandemic with death rates similar to those in the Spanish flu that swept the world in 1918-19 could shrink global GDP by 4.8%. Although such research can help to identify the economic effects of swine flu, global recession means that some of the mechanisms it describes are already at work. The recession means, perhaps counterintuitively, that the incremental economic effect of a pandemic may be less dramatic than it would be in normal times. ... (link)