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Debt and Interest Rates: Some Empirical Evidence and Implications

Published 17 hours ago by Menzie Chinn (jhamilton@ucsd.edu) at Econbrowser

Today's NYT article suggests apocalypse (very) soon: ...the government faces a payment shock similar to those that sent legions of overstretched homeowners into default on their mortgages. Do we really need to worry so much in the short term? Figure 1: Ten year constant maturity ...
WallStreetBlips: vote it up!

Factors in local house price declines
econbrowser.com - 36 hours ago
Factors in local house price declines
— econbrowser.com — UCSD Ph.D. candidate Sam Dastrup has completed a very interesting study with his advisor Professor Richard Carson of what accounts for differences across U.S. communities in the magnitude of the decline in real estate prices that we've seen over the ... (more) Factors in local house price declines

Comments vote down Scrivener.net found this 36 hours agofound this
Baselines, Counterfactuals and the Stimulus
econbrowser.com - 2 days ago
Baselines, Counterfactuals and the Stimulus
— econbrowser.com — Apropos the post on evaluating the impact of the stimulus, here is graphical depiction of what IHS Global Insight, Macroeconomic Advisers, and Moody's predicted under the counterfactual of no stimulus against the w/stimulus outlook (from NYT ).  ... (more) Baselines, Counterfactuals and the Stimulus

Comments vote down Economist's View found this 2 days agofound this
China, the Renminbi, and Global Imbalances: A Quantitative View
econbrowser.com - 4 days ago
China, the Renminbi, and Global Imbalances: A Quantitative View
— econbrowser.com — President Obama's trip to China has returned to scrutiny the role of China's currency and macroeconomic policies in perpetuating global imbalances. [0] [1] [2] Figure 1: Log real value of RMB (blue, left axis), and Chinese trade balance ... (more) China, the Renminbi, and Global Imbalances: A ...

Comments vote down Economist's View found this 4 days agofound this
GDP: Revisions and Forecasts

Published 4 days ago by Menzie Chinn (jhamilton@ucsd.edu) at Econbrowser

There's been some discussion of how the GDP estimates for 2009Q3 might be revised downward in light of the September trade release [1] . e-Forecasting has presented its latest estimates up to October, and Macroeconomic Advisers through September. Macroeconomic Advisers writes: ...The increase ...
WallStreetBlips: vote it up!

Receiver operating characteristics curve
econbrowser.com - 5 days ago
Receiver operating characteristics curve
— econbrowser.com — Travis Berge and Oscar Jorda of the University of California, Davis have an interesting new paper on statistical criteria for distinguishing economic expansions from recessions. Berge and Jorda evaluate rules of the form that would declare the ... (more) Receiver operating characteristics curve

Comments vote down Economist's View found this 5 days agofound this
econbrowser.com - 7 days ago
Assessing the Impact of Government Policy on Widget Consumption and Widget Sector Capital Usage
— econbrowser.com — Let supply and demand for widgets (y) be given by the following two equations, respectively: (1) y t = α t + β x t + ε t (2) y t = γ + δ x t + Γ z t + u t Where x is the relative price of widgets, z ... (more) Assessing the Impact of Government Policy on Widget ...
Comments vote down Economist's View found this 7 days agofound this
The Global Surface Temperature Anomaly

Published 8 days ago by Menzie Chinn (jhamilton@ucsd.edu) at Econbrowser

From NOAA's National Climate Data Center : larger graph From Temperature Anomaly FAQs : The term "temperature anomaly" means a departure from a reference value or long-term average. A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a ...
WallStreetBlips: vote it up!

Commodity inflation
econbrowser.com - 9 days ago
Commodity inflation
— econbrowser.com — Why are the prices of so many commodities rising in an economy that seems to remain quite weak? % change butter 35 coffee 21.8 cocoa 20.2 copper 89.1 corn -8.3 cotton 38.6 gold 32.1 hogs 2.7 oats 13.4 oil 63.2 lead 81.9 palladium ... (more) Commodity inflation

Comments vote down Abnormal Returns found this 9 days agofound this
Politico Does Economic Analysis...
econbrowser.com - 12 days ago
Politico Does Economic Analysis...
— econbrowser.com — Be afraid; be very afraid. From "'Created or saved' doesn't add up" , by Joseph Lawler: ...[t]he "created or saved" numbers are meaningless. The administration purposefully devised the metric to be nebulous. Without a counterfactual, showing ... (more) Politico Does Economic Analysis...

Comments vote down Economist's View found this 12 days agofound this
Will rising oil prices derail the recovery?
econbrowser.com - 13 days ago
Will rising oil prices derail the recovery?
— econbrowser.com — Last April I described new research on the role of oil prices in the recent recession. Here's an update on what's happened since then. In a paper presented at the Brookings Institution last spring , I examined the post-sample forecasting ... (more) Will rising oil prices derail the recovery?

Comments vote down naked capitalism found this 13 days agofound this
"Where's the Consumption Disaster?"
econbrowser.com - 14 days ago
"Where's the Consumption Disaster?"
— econbrowser.com — Casey Mulligan asks: So a year later, in September 2009, after living through a year of "disaster," how did real consumption expenditure (one economists' favorite measures of living standards) compare to what it was in September 2008? He ... (more) "Where's the Consumption Disaster?"

Comments vote down Economist's View found this 14 days agofound this
Guest Contribution: The Liquidity Trap Does Not Make Monetary Policy Ineffective
econbrowser.com - 10 days ago
Guest Contribution: The Liquidity Trap Does Not Make Monetary Policy Ineffective
— econbrowser.com — By Joseph E. Gagnon Today, we're fortunate to have Joe Gagnon , senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics , as a guest contributor. With short-term risk-free interest rates essentially at zero in the major developed ... (more) Guest Contribution: The Liquidity Trap Does Not Make ...

Comments vote down J. Bradford DeLong's Grasping Reality with All Eight ... found this 10 days agofound this
Consequences of the Lehman failure
econbrowser.com - 16 days ago
Consequences of the Lehman failure
— econbrowser.com — William Sterling of Trilogy Global Advisors has an interesting new paper on the abrupt changes in financial markets subsequent to Lehman's bankruptcy on September 15, 2008. Sterling's paper is in part a response to earlier analyses by John Taylor ... (more) Consequences of the Lehman failure

Comments vote down naked capitalism found this 16 days agofound this
Some Thoughts Elicited by Reading Some Calibration Papers
econbrowser.com - 18 days ago
Some Thoughts Elicited by Reading Some Calibration Papers
— econbrowser.com — (Warning: Might be considered "wonky" by some) In many economic analyses, one wants to isolate the "business cycle" component of macroeconomic series. Here is one such series, which has had a detrending technique applied to it. Try to guess what it ... (more) Some Thoughts Elicited by Reading Some Calibration Papers

Comments vote down Economist's View found this 18 days agofound this
Current economic conditions
econbrowser.com - 20 days ago
Current economic conditions
— econbrowser.com — The U.S. recovery is underway. But so far it doesn't look as strong as we had been hoping. Data source: Wardsauto.com U.S. light vehicle sales last month were up slightly from September and about the same as October 2008. ... (more) Current economic conditions

Comments vote down Abnormal Returns found this 20 days agofound this
Prospects for Employment under Differing Econometric Specifications
econbrowser.com - 21 days ago
Prospects for Employment under Differing Econometric Specifications
— econbrowser.com — Most economists are projecting a slow recovery in terms of employment. What do historical correlations imply? In order to investigate this question, I examine the relationship between GDP and nonfarm payroll employment over the 1986-2009 period, ... (more) Prospects for Employment under Differing Econometric ...

Comments vote down Economist's View found this 21 days agofound this
On Revisions and on Conditioning
econbrowser.com - 23 days ago
On Revisions and on Conditioning
— econbrowser.com — Both have to be "handled with care". Revisions We're all tempted to make predictions on the basis of the last data point. And even more difficult to resist is the temptation to make definitive statements on the basis of data that are sure to ... (more) On Revisions and on Conditioning

Comments vote down J. Bradford DeLong's Grasping Reality with All Eight ... found this 23 days agofound this
A welcome GDP report
econbrowser.com - 25 days ago
A welcome GDP report
— econbrowser.com — The Commerce Department reported today that the seasonally adjusted real value of the nation's production of goods and services grew at a 3.5% annual rate during the third quarter, a little better than the 3.2% average seen since 1947.  ... (more) A welcome GDP report

Comments vote down Across the Curve found this 25 days agofound this
The 2009Q3 Advance GDP Release and Stimulus Measures
econbrowser.com - 25 days ago
The 2009Q3 Advance GDP Release and Stimulus Measures
— econbrowser.com — The 3.5% growth rate was, in my view, in large part attributable to direct measures to stimulate the economy, including direct spending on goods and services by the government (Federal, state and local), as well as tax measures. First, let's take a ... (more) The 2009Q3 Advance GDP Release and Stimulus Measures

Comments vote down Economist's View found this 25 days agofound this
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