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Robin Hanson :
At ideosphere.com you will find eight claims that are over fifteen years old and still trading. One of them will be known in a few weeks. Calibration tests have been done on ideosphere prices showing moderate long shot bias I think.
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Paul Hewitt’s answer to Robin Hanson and Nate Silver:
Paul Hewitt :
Yes, prediction markets “incentivize accuracy”, but there is no guarantee of success. So far, we know that they *can* work in short (actually very short) term issues. There is absolutely no evidence that they work in ...
Commodities
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Commodities
David Dollar
Federal Reserve
Gold
Personal Finance
Peter Fisher
Global Downturn
Nate Silver becomes a little Robin Hanson fanboy… after just a lunch with the Master.
ACT ONE : Nate Silver lunches with Robin Hanson, one month ago, to interview him for his future book about forecasting.
ACT TWO : Robin Hanson has published yet another post pumping up prediction ...
Commodities
Silver
Global Downturn
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Wikipedia
Kevin Gurney :
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Global Downturn
About the mounting federal debt:
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Personal Finance
Global Downturn
Jason Ruspini :
There is no blind faith involved. A lot of trading is about heuristics and when multiple oscillators and sentiment indicators get to extreme levels, it’s prudent to lighten up. When that happens, I agree that it’s actually a crowded trade — as opposed to the “crowded trade” ...
Commodities
Gold
Personal Finance
David Dollar
Financial Crisis
Global Downturn
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Stocks
Apple Inc.
Ibrahim Maalouf @ Wikipedia
He explains it all 2:30 into the video:
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Experts Who Predict the Future
Criticism of Bueno de Mesquita’s Theories
Addendum : Philip Tetlock’s foxes and hedgehogs
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Commodities
Gold
Jim Cramer
Personal Finance
Financial Crisis
Global Downturn
Jason Ruspini :
Fortunately, gold doesn’t need inflation to go up. That misperception kept many people out of gold and was one of the reasons why the trade was not actually overcrowded. The dollar is going down, but as Bernanke said, the dollar is only one input to inflation. The US is ...
Commodities
Gold
Inflation
Interest Rate
Personal Finance
David Dollar
Global Downturn
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Government
Financial Crisis
Warren Buffet
Federal Reserve
Personal Finance
Global Downturn
– “UPS’s workforce is much more heavily unionized than FEDEX’s —and more than twice as expensive.”
- “UPS is trying to get FEDEX reclassified under federal law as a way of screwing a competitor.”
Reason TV :
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Stocks
FedEx
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Commodities
Recession
Global Downturn
Universal Banking
Personal Finance
David Dollar
Odds Favoring Online Gambling? – CNBC
- Andrew Parmentire, Height Analytics
- David Katz, Oppenheimer gaming analyst
Download this post to watch the CNBC video –if you’re feed reader doesn’t show it to you:
Via Alexander Ainslie et al .
Addendum : Global ...
Government
Global Downturn
Barney Frank
Andrew Cuomo
Retail Industry
http://www.europac.net/
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Government
Nouriel Roubini
Peter Fisher
Gold
Global Downturn
Timothy Geithner
Silver
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Government
Federal Reserve
Personal Finance
Global Downturn
Interest Rate
- Do hacked e-mails show global-warming fraud?
- Climategate: the final nail in the coffin of ‘Anthropogenic Global Warming’ ?
- More from Memeorandum .
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