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http://alephblog.com/ - Helping Institutions and Ordinary People Invest Better by Focusing on Risk Control

alephblog.com - 12 hours ago
Problems with Constant Compound Interest (4) (and more)
— alephblog.com — At the meeting of the eight bloggers and the US Treasury, one of the differences was whether the recovery was real or not. The Treasury officials pointed to the financial markets, and the bloggers pointed at the real economy (unemployment and capacity utilization). With T-bills near/below ... (more) Problems with Constant Compound Interest (4) (and more)

Comments vote down Alephblog Alephblog posted 12 hours agoposted this
alephblog.com - 2 days ago
Notes from Recent Travels
— alephblog.com — Before I begin this evening, I would like to comment on my absence for the last week. I gave a talk on Friday to the Southeastern Actuaries Conference . I found myself behind the eight-ball, because of my many other projects, and so I had to block out the time to write and prepare the talk.  ... (more) Notes from Recent Travels

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alephblog.com - 11 days ago
The Forever Fund
— alephblog.com — Imagine for a moment that you were approached by a very wealthy foundation, and they asked you to invest their money. They offer a low asset-based fee, but the assets are so large that it looks like a dream to you. Then they tell you the conditions: We want this fund to last forever. It ... (more) The Forever Fund

Comments vote down Alephblog Alephblog posted 11 days agoposted this
alephblog.com - 12 days ago
Deeds, not Words on the US Dollar
— alephblog.com — From Bloomberg , I quote our Treasury Secretary: “I believe deeply that it’s very important to the United States, to the economic health of the United States, that we maintain a strong dollar,” Geithner told reporters in Tokyo today. Before I write, I can hear my friend Caroline Baum of ... (more) Deeds, not Words on the US Dollar

Comments vote down Alephblog Alephblog posted 12 days agoposted this
alephblog.com - 13 days ago
How to Regulate the Banks, and other Financials
— alephblog.com — At the Treasury meeting, I commented that the insurers were better regulated for solvency than the banks. One of the reasons for that is that they do harder stress tests, and they look longer-term. So, if one is trying to regulate banks for solvency, there are two things to do: Set ... (more) How to Regulate the Banks, and other Financials

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alephblog.com - 14 days ago
My Visit to the US Treasury, Part 7 (Final)
— alephblog.com — Things have been busy for me, so this final part should be short. What did I learn that I did not already know? Not much, except: The Treasury wants to convince the public that it is doing its best, but that Congress is a slave to the Financial Services industries. When asked about the ... (more) My Visit to the US Treasury, Part 7 (Final)

Comments vote down Alephblog Alephblog posted 14 days agoposted this
alephblog.com - 16 days ago
My Visit to the US Treasury, Part 6
— alephblog.com — Now, none of us knew when we came that only bloggers were invited. Personally, I expected it to be a broader press briefing that some bloggers could come to as well. “Deep background” is well understood to the press, but new to bloggers. My blogging friends at the meeting can ... (more) My Visit to the US Treasury, Part 6

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alephblog.com - 16 days ago
My Visit to the US Treasury, Part 5
— alephblog.com — One other blogger took his nameplate with him — I’m not sure who; the rest left theirs. But this is what was in front of each one of us as we sat down to discuss matters at the US Treasury. Treasury officials had similar nameplates. It dictated where we would sit as well.  ... (more) My Visit to the US Treasury, Part 5

Comments vote down Alephblog Alephblog posted 16 days agoposted this
alephblog.com - 18 days ago
My Visit to the US Treasury, Part 4
— alephblog.com — So, who did I recommend for the next meeting at the Treasury? (I think there will be one.) Economists View http://economistsview.typepad.com/ Cafe Americain http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/ Market-Ticker http://market-ticker.denninger.net/ Econbrowser http://www.econbrowser.com/ ... (more) My Visit to the US Treasury, Part 4

Comments vote down Alephblog Alephblog posted 18 days agoposted this
alephblog.com - 19 days ago
My Visit to the US Treasury, Part 3
— alephblog.com — Going back to bank stress-testing for a moment, one interesting thing that a Treasury official said at the meeting was that unemployment did not have a big effect on foreclosures. Unemployment has a big effect on credit card defaults, but not foreclosures. I disagree. As a multi-purpose ... (more) My Visit to the US Treasury, Part 3

Comments vote down Alephblog Alephblog posted 19 days agoposted this
alephblog.com - 19 days ago
November 2009 Redacted FOMC Statement
— alephblog.com — September 2009 November 2009 Comments Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in August suggests that economic activity has picked up following its severe downturn . Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met ... (more) November 2009 Redacted FOMC Statement

Comments vote down Alephblog Alephblog posted 19 days agoposted this
alephblog.com - 20 days ago
My Visit to the US Treasury, Part 2
— alephblog.com — Before I start this evening, to all my fellow bloggers out there, if you were invited to the gathering at the US Treasury and did not come, I have a request and a question: If you were invited, send me an e-mail . Tell me why you decided not to come, if you would. If present trends ... (more) My Visit to the US Treasury, Part 2

Comments vote down Alephblog Alephblog posted 20 days agoposted this
alephblog.com - 21 days ago
My Visit to the US Treasury, Part 1
— alephblog.com — This will have to be brief, because I am tired. I have had to deal with family and work issues today, and only now have time to blog. You might have seen my fanciful post, Fallowhaven, Part 1 . I wrote that because I thought I could reveal almost nothing of my visit to the US Treasury ... (more) My Visit to the US Treasury, Part 1

Comments vote down Alephblog Alephblog posted 21 days agoposted this
alephblog.com - 22 days ago
Fannie + Goldman + US Treasury + Tax Credits = Complex Mess
— alephblog.com — In a prior job, I spent a decent amount of time on Affordable Housing tax credits . The idea was to reduce my life insurance company client’s taxable income to the point where they would be close to but not subject to the corporate alternative minimum tax. Occasionally my work would ... (more) Fannie + Goldman + US Treasury + Tax Credits = Complex Mess

Comments vote down Alephblog Alephblog posted 22 days agoposted this
alephblog.com - 23 days ago
Fallowhaven, Part 1
— alephblog.com — Once upon a time, in a land far, far away, there lived a man named Lord Fallow. Lord Fallow was the Lord, the leader of his outlying area Fallowhaven, in the Kingdom of Greyscale. Truth, being the Lord there didn’t mean that much; it was a small place in a much larger Kingdom. Fallow ... (more) Fallowhaven, Part 1

Comments vote down Alephblog Alephblog posted 23 days agoposted this
Book Review: Nerds on Wall Street
alephblog.com - 24 days ago
Book Review: Nerds on Wall Street
— alephblog.com — After my last book review, a reader asked how I was able to read so many books, given my other responsibilities. My answer is this: I keep a book near me at all times. When I get a break, I read a few pages. Over a week, that means a book gets read. That’s how I read so many ... (more) Book Review: Nerds on Wall Street

Comments vote down Alephblog Alephblog posted 24 days agoposted this
alephblog.com - 25 days ago
Seven Recommendations: A Government More Responsive To Its Citizens
— alephblog.com — This is not a political blog. That said, almost all writing on economics and business embeds a political point of view. I recognize that my view is relatively libertarian with respect to economics/business, but conservative with respect to ethical issues. There are a few things that I think ... (more) Seven Recommendations: A Government More Responsive To ...
Comments vote down Alephblog Alephblog posted 25 days agoposted this
alephblog.com - 26 days ago
On Bond Investing, ETFs, Indexes, and the Current Market Environment
— alephblog.com — Bond indexes are what they are. They represent the average dollar invested in the bond markets. Those that say that the indexes are flawed miss the point . Indexes represent the average return of an asset class, with all of its warts and wrinkles. That is the nature of an index; it earns ... (more) On Bond Investing, ETFs, Indexes, and the Current Market ...

Comments vote down Alephblog Alephblog posted 26 days agoposted this
alephblog.com - 27 days ago
Some Praise and Questions for the US Treasury
— alephblog.com — 1) Perhaps the US Treasury is getting a few things right. Let’s start with lengthening the average maturity of Treasury debt. I have backed this idea in the past . It is worthy to note that zero coupon yields peak out around 20 years out, and then start declining. It is quite possible ... (more) Some Praise and Questions for the US Treasury

Comments vote down Alephblog Alephblog posted 27 days agoposted this
Book Review: The Predictioneer’s Game
alephblog.com - 28 days ago
Book Review: The Predictioneer’s Game
— alephblog.com — Most of us were kids once. I think I was a kid once, but my memory is fuzzy. I do remember playing the card game “War.” Nice game, but suppose if you were dealt a weak deck you had the option to look at the opponent’s deck, and stack yours to meet the challenge. That ... (more) Book Review: The Predictioneer’s Game

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