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http://www.capitalspectator.com/ - Investing, Asset Allocation, Economics & the Search for the Bottom Line
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All hail the arrival of zero! It’s been a long time coming—nearly two years. But better late than never.
Technically, nonfarm payrolls slipped last month by 11,000, the Labor Department reports. But in a labor force of nearly 131 million, that’s effectively no change if we consider the ...
Commodities
Today’s update on jobless claims strengthens the case for arguing that the Great Recession is over.
New filings for unemployment benefits dipped 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 457,000 for the week through November 28--the lowest since September 2008, the Department of Labor reports. The ...
Commodities
The gold market’s worried about inflation, but there are few signs of it in the official numbers. Nor is there likely to be much pricing pressure anytime soon if we consider the latest estimates from ADP.
Nonfarm payrolls for November are expected to be lighter by 169,000 over the previous ...
Stocks
Gold
Steve Jobs
Automatic Data Processing
capitalspectator.com - 4 days ago
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capitalspectator.com —
Reflation was alive and well in the financial
and commodity markets last month. Although November’s rally was...
well short of the best months this year, no one’s complaining. After nine consecutive months of upward momentum, interrupted only briefly ...
(more)
NOVEMBER WAS NO TURKEY
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Abnormal Returns
found this 4 days agofound this
The debt crisis in Dubai is probably overblown in the media in terms of global economic consequences, but the fear that the problems will spill over into other markets is certainly real enough. But if this sounds like deja vu all over again, you're right.
Been there, done that, you might ...
Government
Another holiday is upon us and your editor will be vacating the digital premises for some downtime with drinks, dinners and various diversions. The routine returns on Monday, November 30.
Happy Thanksgiving!
Other
“We have to be sure that the recovery is final, that domestic demand is self-sustaining and the peak in unemployment is on the foreseeable horizon,” Dominique Strauss-Kahn, managing director of the IMF, said yesterday in London yesterday in connection with a speech he gave at a British industry ...
Government
Is it time to consider more radical strategies for repairing the U.S. economy? Perhaps, although as a recent essay from the Levy Economics Institute argues, it’s also clear that the old game of trying to reflate bubbles isn’t going to work this time.
“Like the Bush administration before it, ...
Government
Today's release of second estimate of third-quarter GDP reveals that the economy expanded at a slower pace than originally reported. The initial 3.5% annualized real growth in the U.S. for Q3 was, we're now told, just 2.8%.
Meantime, corporate profits skyrocketed in Q3. As companies shed ...
Other
Gross Domestic Product
Are the days of the jobless recovery numbered? Yes, according to the latest survey that was released today.
The Capital Spectator has obtained a copy of the full report. Among the highlights:
* NABE-member economists predict a moderately higher pace of economic growth for this year's ...
Commodities
capitalspectator.com - 12 days ago
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capitalspectator.com —
Sovereign risk doesn’t usually dominate the headlines on
any given day, but in the wake of last...
year’s financial cataclysm there’s a sharper focus on the fallout that flows from governments that mismanage their debt and economy. The elephant in ...
(more)
SOVERIGN RISK, REFLATION & THE NEW NORMAL
Everyone knows it’s coming, but when? Everyone recognizes that at some point it’s essential, but the associated benefits and risks are debatable.
One thing we can be reasonable sure of, as we discussed on Monday, is that central bankers are prone to misjudge the future. Indeed, there's ...
Government
There are no major economic reports scheduled today and so a day of the data vacuum awaits. That offers an opportunity to review the latest numbers in the dismal science in search of clues about where we’ve been in recent history and where we might be going.
First up is the Philly Fed’s ...
Stocks
Only in the hallowed halls of Congress could the notion of spending vastly higher amounts of money convince so many that the net result will be a reduction in spending. But such is the conceit with the new health care bill being hammered out these days.
The new legislation to expand health ...
Other
The danger is not the past, but the future.
Today’s update on weekly jobless claims may be the warning sign. New filings for jobless benefits were unchanged last week, hovering at 505,000, matching the previous week’s tally. Although this number is down sharply from it’s recessionary peak of ...
Other
Definitive statements about the future are always suspect in finance and economics, but it’s reasonable to assume that the threat of deflation as a clear and present danger has passed. But we can’t say for sure. To the extent that a double-dip recession remains a possibility, so too will does ...
Stocks
Central bankers are a powerful lot and so it’s an easy to assume that they’re also prescient. When you’re making decisions that affect the livelihoods of millions of people—billions on a global scale—confusing people with their institutional authority can become habit forming. But central ...
Government
The news on new filings for unemployment benefits once again favors the idea that economic recovery is continuing. It’s a tenuous rebound, one ripe with caveats, including a big one we’ll discuss below. But it’s a rebound nonetheless.
The Labor Department today reports that initial jobless ...
Commodities
Recession
capitalspectator.com - 23 days ago
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capitalspectator.com —
The world is filled with recommendations and research
on what works best in the money game. But...
when you reduce the sea of study down to the essential lessons, we're left with rule number one—diversify within and across asset classes, i.e., asset ...
(more)
TWO RULES THAT CAST A LONG SHADOW OVER INVESTING RESULTS
capitalspectator.com - 26 days ago
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capitalspectator.com —
One of the supporting pillars in the recent
rally is the recognition that inflation isn't a problem....
Last year's financial crisis knocked the stuffing out of the system's tendency to devalue the purchasing power of fiat currencies over time. The net ...
(more)
INFLATION EXPECTATIONS CONTINUE TO INCH HIGHER
