VoxEU.org - 11/19/2008
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Nicholas Bloom , 18 November 2008 Every economist is predicting a macabre 2009, but no one knows for sure how bad things will get or who will survive. This column, by comparing the current crisis to uncertainty shocks of the last 40 years, predicts GDP growth could be reduced by as much as ...
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"Nightmare on Main Street"
Economist's View —
Nicholas Bloom says things could get bad if we forget the "major lesson from the Great Depression of the 1930s":
2009 will be the
nightmare on Main Street, by Nicholas Bloom, voxeu.org: Every horror movie
fan knows the scene before the attack. Creepy electronic music plays. The victim
is shown from behind. The camera scans around the bushes, in the dark, to the
sound of heavy breathing. You know something evil is going to happen, but not
when, where or how.
Right now the world economy feels a lot like that. Every economist is
predicting a macabre 2009 (Philadelphia Federal ...
Uncertainty and the credit crisis: The worst may be over
VoxEU.org: Recent Articles —
It s official. As everyone now knows, the US economy is in recession and has been since December 2007. If the contraction continues for another four months, which at this point seems inevitable, this downturn will match the two longest peak to trough slides in the Post-WWII period, the first from November 1973 to March 1975, the second from July 1981 to November 1982. Whether the current recession achieves the dubious distinction of matching unemployment rates of the earlier ones (9% in May 1975 and 10.2% in November 1982) remains to be seen, but the dramatic rise in unemployment announced on 5 December 2008 is worrisome. As for the ...
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