econbrowser.com - 10/30/2009
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The Commerce Department reported today that the seasonally adjusted real value of the nation's production of goods and services grew at a 3.5% annual rate during the third quarter, a little better than the 3.2% average seen since 1947.
Rate of growth of real GDP (annual rates), ...
baselinescenario.com - 10/30/2009
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baselinescenario.com —
Yesterday morning I testified to a Joint Economic
Committee of Congress hearing. The session discussed the latest...
GDP numbers, the impact of the fiscal stimulus earlier this year, and whether we need further fiscal expansion of any kind. I argued that a global recovery is underway and in ...
(more)
Baseline Scenario, October 30, 2009
businessweek.com - 10/30/2009
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businessweek.com —
By overlooking cuts in research and development, product
design, and worker training, GDP is greatly overstating the...
economy's strength
(more)
The GDP Mirage
curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com - 10/29/2009
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curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com —
What can we learn from this morning's surprisingly
strong 3.5% real GDP growth report ? 1) Goldman...
Sachs does not know all. The bank's economists had been on eerie run of sending out prescient alerts the day before major data releases—mainly the ...
(more)
The Curious Capitalist
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Evening Reading
Across the Curve —
Law Professor makes strong case that pay czar is unconstitional.
Professor Hamilton on the GDP report and Calculated Risk on the same.
Martin Feldstein on why the Chinese currency must appreciate.
Hong Kong acts to limit risk taking.
Bank of Japan to consider ending some emergency measures.
Fight over the science of global warming via the WSJ. ...
links for 2009-10-29
Economist's View —
... The 2009Q3 Advance GDP Release and Stimulus Measures - Econbrowser
A welcome GDP report - Econbrowser
Fed Watch: Sustainable Growth?
Economist's View —
... . And the slower inventory
depletion suggests that firms are further along than expected in realigning
stockpiles with demand, and that future improvement will need to stem from more
significant improvements in underlying demand (see
James Hamilton for a more positive interpretation). ...
Friday links: slow capital
Abnormal Returns —
... more equity? (Economist)
How the Feds could have obtained a haircut on AIG (AIG) CDS contracts. (Epicurean Dealmaker)
With 3Q GDP figures in the rear view mirror: Is the recession over? (Calculated Risk, Mean Street, WSJ, Economist’s View, The Stash, Floyd Norris, Econbrowser, Free exchange, DJ Market Talk ...
links for 2009-10-31
J. Bradford DeLong's Grasping Reality with All Eight Tentacles —
... Matthew Yglesias: Manufacturing and the Bubble
James Hamilton: A welcome GDP report
Stan Collender: Clive...The Deficit Is Not ...
Weekly Summary
Calculated Risk —
... in Graphs Unofficial Problem Bank List Grows to 500 A guest post from albert: On a New York bankruptcy case in the news: In re Olga: of Bankruptcy and Foreclosure **************************** On the GDP report: From Rex Nutting at MarketWatch: U.S. GDP rises 3.5% as stimulus kicks in From Paul Krugman: What recovery should look like From Jim Hamilton at Econbrowser: A welcome GDP report And from me: Random Thoughts on the Q3 GDP Report ...
Related Content
Been down so long it looks like up
econbrowser.com 7/31/2009 — The Commerce Department reported today that the seasonally adjusted real value of the nation's production of goods and services fell at a 1% annual rate during the second quarter. That's about as bad as things ever got during the recession of 2001. ...
Good News and Bad News from the GDP release
econbrowser.com 8/1/2009 — Some additional observations (see Jim Hamilton's take , as well as others ) on the GDP release: (1) the five year revision indicates that GDP was larger than we thought, but it also declined faster in 2009Q1; (2) GDP growth was lower throughout 2008 ...
Guest post: Economic recovery and the perverse math of GDP reporting
nakedcapitalism.com 5/8/2009 —
Submitted by Edward Harrison of the site Credit Writedowns Now that everyone is talking about greens hoots and the potential for economic recovery, I thought I would run through the statistics of U.S. GDP with you. The reason I am bringing ...
Is the Recession Over ? (Extended Transition Phase)
ritholtz.com 10/29/2009 — Today, we are going to get what is likely a positive GDP. There are a number of factors that are contributing to the improving data point, not the least of which are the inventory liquidation, and the faster fall of imports than domestic consumption. ...
Tracking the Consumption Decline
econbrowser.com 9/10/2009 — The new semester has begun, and I was reviewing economic trends in my macro courses. In my lectures, I highlighted the sharp drop-off in consumption. In the following, I discuss how well my predictions for consumption from last November have held up.
When Did the Recession Begin?
crossingwallstreet.com 11/12/2008 — The common media definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. Technically, that’s not correct. For example, at the beginning of this decade, we never had two straight quarter of falling GDP, but it certainly felt like ...
What Does the Collapse of US Imports and Exports Collapse Signify?
econbrowser.com 5/5/2009 —
The Collapse in Relation to GDP
In an earlier post, I discussed the startling decline in US imports [0] . Brad Setser has also reported on this phenomenon. This decline is not restricted to the United States, as noted in an OECD report released ...
Trade Procyclicality in the Current Recession: The View from the US
econbrowser.com 10/9/2009 — Paul Krugman recently characterized the current pace of trade activity as worse than that during the Great Depression. And indeed, graphs from Barry Eichengreen and Kevin O'Rourke have been diligent in illustrating how this is the case, most recently ...
Some Additional Observations on the 2008Q3 Advance GDP Release
econbrowser.com 10/31/2008 — If you went no further than noticing that the q/q annualized growth rate of -0.3% was faster than the -0.5 in the Bloomberg consensus, you might have taken this as good news. I'm not going to say it wasn't good news (relatively speaking), although ...
On Revisions and on Conditioning
econbrowser.com 11/1/2009 — Both have to be "handled with care".
Revisions
We're all tempted to make predictions on the basis of the last data point. And even more difficult to resist is the temptation to make definitive statements on the basis of data that are sure to ...
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