econbrowser.com - 7/2/2009
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As James Morley has pointed out, often a sharp economic downturn is followed by an equally sharp economic recovery. One reason for that is the liquidation of inventories that accompanies any recession and restocking that takes place in recovery. What should we expect this time?
The graph ...
morganstanley.com - 7/6/2009
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morganstanley.com —
United States America's Fiscal Train Wreck July 06,
2009 By Richard Berner | New York America's long-awaited
fiscal train wreck is now underway. Depending on policy actions taken now and over the next few years, federal deficits will likely average as ...
(more)
Global Economic Forum
cboblog.cbo.gov - 6/26/2009
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cboblog.cbo.gov —
Today CBO released the Long-Term Budget Outlook .
Under current law, the federal budget is on an
unsustainable path—meaning that federal debt will continue to grow much faster than the economy over the long run. Although great uncertainty surrounds ...
(more)
Long-Term Budget Outlook
voxeu.org - 7/3/2009
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voxeu.org —
Caroline Freund , 3 July 2009 The collapse
in trade has been unprecedentedly severe. This column examines
potential explanations. While the global fragmentation of production has increased the responsiveness of trade flows to drops in demand, trade ...
(more)
Explaining the trade collapse
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links for 2009-07-02
Economist's View —
... Abnormal Returns - links
A V-shaped recession? - Econbrowser
Links
Across the Curve —
Manhattan real estate prices diving.
China on the dollar.
China on the dollar again.
FT on the long lasting effect of the financial calamity on European growth.
Professor Hamilton on the shape of the recovery
Thursday links: a nation of renters
Abnormal Returns —
... “The question is whether our financial system is willing and able to extend the credit that would fuel the recovery.” (Econbrowser) ...
The Case for a V-shaped Jobs Recovery
The Bonddad Blog —
... II. Rapid inventory reduction can give rise to a rapid snap-back. Dr. James Hamilton has laid out this aspect of the case for a V Shaped Recovery. I encourage you to read the entire article, but it can be summarized as follows: ...
Related Content
The financial return on energy invested
europe.theoildrum.com 6/23/2009 —
Global GDP data from the USDA. Primary energy data and energy prices from the BP statistical reveiw of world energy 2009.
Global GDP has grown steadily and continuously since WWII, in step with a growing global population and primary energy ...
U.S. GDP
measuringworth.org 3/14/2009 — Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country during a given time period. There are two ways to measure GDP: Nominal GDP is the dollar value of production at current-year prices. For ...
Good News and Bad News from the GDP release
econbrowser.com 8/1/2009 — Some additional observations (see Jim Hamilton's take , as well as others ) on the GDP release: (1) the five year revision indicates that GDP was larger than we thought, but it also declined faster in 2009Q1; (2) GDP growth was lower throughout 2008 ...
China’s Magic Numbers
thebigmoney.com 7/19/2009 — BEIJING-China, on Thursday, announced its second-quarter gross domestic product-a big deal here. It's not just the Chinese government's top priority but a nearly sacrosanct number. Growth came in at an astounding 7.9 percent. But could China's GDP ...
On Revisions and on Conditioning
econbrowser.com 6 days ago — Both have to be "handled with care".
Revisions
We're all tempted to make predictions on the basis of the last data point. And even more difficult to resist is the temptation to make definitive statements on the basis of data that are sure to ...
Preliminary Analysis of the President’s Budget
cboblog.cbo.gov 3/21/2009 — We have just released our latest projections for the budget and economic outlook, updating the projections published in early January 2009. In addition, we have reviewed the President’s budgetary proposals contained in the February publication A New ...
Financial Crisis and Recession
woodwardhall.wordpress.com 12/11/2008 — The Obama administration’s focus on infrastructure spending raises the natural question of the effect of government purchases on total GDP. Does government spending stimulate other categories of spending, especially consumer spending? Or does ...
Been down so long it looks like up
econbrowser.com 7/31/2009 — The Commerce Department reported today that the seasonally adjusted real value of the nation's production of goods and services fell at a 1% annual rate during the second quarter. That's about as bad as things ever got during the recession of 2001. ...
What will recovery look like?
econbrowser.com 3/15/2009 — When good news comes, what should we expect to see?
The graph below plots the quarterly percentage change (at an annual rate) for real GDP and some of its key components since 1947. Calculated Risk has noted that the typical recession pattern is ...
Is Germany Dependent on Exports to Grow?
fistfulofeuros.net 9/30/2009 — The analysis that follows should really be taken along with Edward’s recent thoughts on the Global Imbalances situation as well as his latest economic survey of the current state of play in the German economy .
Essentially, I am going to have a look at what is, arguably, one of the more ...
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