baselinescenario.com - 4/7/2009
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Baseline Scenario for 4/7/2009 (9am): Post-G20 Edition
Peter Boone, Simon Johnson, and James Kwak, copyright of the authors.
This long-overdue (and hopefully widely-awaited) version of our Baseline Scenario focuses largely on the United States, both because of the volume of activity in the ...
bloomberg.com - 4/1/2009
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bloomberg.com —
By John Hughes, Linda Sandler and Rebecca Christie
April 1 (Bloomberg) -- President Barack Obama believes a...
quick, negotiated bankruptcy is the most likely way for General Motors Corp. to restructure and become a competitive automaker, people familiar ...
(more)
Obama Said to Find Bankruptcy Likely for GM, Chrysler ...
highchartpatterns.blogspot.com - 4/4/2009
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highchartpatterns.blogspot.com —
One of the best articles we've read in
a long time, written by Simon Johnson, the former...
chief economist of the IMF (2007-2008). Take a minute or two and read the article in its entirety. We've highlighted the parts that held the most interest to us: The Quiet Coup O ne thing you learn ...
(more)
USA: Banana Republic
baselinescenario.com - 4/4/2009
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baselinescenario.com —
My Yale Law School colleague Ilya Podolyako comments
on the Obama administration’s plan for the auto industry...
and the tension between public goals - preserving jobs, increasing fuel efficiency, etc. - and private goals - profitability. By now, the dust seems to have settled around ...
(more)
Guest Post: Obama’s Plan for the Auto Industry
Comments
Blog Reactions
Is it a V or an L-shaped recession?
Peter Gallagher —
... point economic weakness becomes its own cure, as falling prices finally prompt consumers to consume and businesses to invest. But given the unprecedented nature of the current situation, it seems by no means certain that that assumption will hold. In particular, with demand low around the globe, the typical mechanism by which an isolated country in recession can recover - exports - cannot work for everyone." Extract from the current outlook according to the Baseline Scenario ...
the condensed richard koo
Decline and Fall of Western Civilization —
... , i.e., not enough resources for recapitalizing banks and addressing housing directly (for the context of this assessment, see our full baseline view). Back in December/January, this was a strategic choice worth arguing about; now it’s a done deal and following the (very) limited recapitalization outcome of the bank stress tests, it seems likely that household and firm spending will remain sluggish. If that is the case, the Administration’s logic implies throwing another big fiscal stimulus into the mix – and the Summers’ team is already preparing the groundwork. ...
Economic Perspectives to Start the Weekend
TraderFeed —
... spending power via increased unemployment and reduced corporate profits. In addition, concerns about financial system solvency are constraining the ability of financial institutions to supply the credit needed by the economy. There will likely be a rolling wave of defaults and debt restructurings in the US and around the world over the next couple of years; this is hard to avoid and constitutes a major reason why the recovery will be slow compared with previous recessions." Baseline Scenario . ...
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Baseline Scenario, 12/15/08
baselinescenario.com 12/15/2008 — Baseline Scenario for 12/15/2008: pdf version
Peter Boone, Simon Johnson, and James Kwak, copyright of the authors
Summary
1) The world is heading into a severe slump, with declining output in the near term and no clear turnaround in sight.
...
The Baseline Scenario - Human Nature
baselinescenario.com 12/31/2008 — Or, why human beings are bad investors.
Free Exchange has Anthony Gottlieb’s recollections of interviewing Bernie Madoff about financial regulation:
at the time he came across merely as calm, strikingly rational, devoid of ego, and the ...
Baseline Scenario, 11/10/08
baselinescenario.com 11/13/2008 — Baseline Scenario, November 10, 2008
By Peter Boone, Simon Johnson, and James Kwak, copyright of the authors
The Baseline Scenario is our periodic overview of the current state of the global economy and our policy proposals. It includes two ...
Baseline Scenario, 2/9/09
baselinescenario.com 2/9/2009 — Baseline Scenario for 2/9/2009 (11pm edition, February 8): link to pdf version
Peter Boone, Simon Johnson, and James Kwak, copyright of the authors.
Summary
1) The world is heading into a severe slump, with declining output in the near term ...
Baseline Blocking
baselinescenario.com 3/18/2009 — A reader reports his firm has blocked Internet access to BaselineScenario.com, and his requests to change this policy have so far gone unheeded.
Access to our site has been blocked in the past by China - for reasons that should be obvious (if you want to pretend there is no global crisis). ...
Obama Takes The Lead: G20 Viewer’s Guide
baselinescenario.com 4/1/2009 — With our myriad banking problems, rapidly rising unemployment, looming political battles over the budget and much more on the pressing domestic agenda, is the G20 summit in London (dinner Wednesday and meeting Thursday) really worth all the time and effort that the President and his team have ...
The Missed Opportunity
baselinescenario.com 4/22/2009 — For a snapshot of what’s wrong with our banking policy, look at the front page of the business section of today’s New York Times. On the left side: “ U.S. in Standoff with Banks over Chrysler .” On the right side: “ Banks Show Clout on Legislation to Help ...
James Surowiecki and Me
baselinescenario.com 5/10/2009 — Back when I had time to read The New Yorker , I was a big fan of James Surowiecki. I would always look for his column; if it was there, it was usually the first thing I would read. Unfortunately, he’s no fan of mine .
Surowiecki makes three points about our recent long post on ...
Banks Take Tough Stance on Chrysler: Are They Hedged Against a Bankruptcy?
economicdiscourse.com 4/23/2009 — Early reports claim that we are witnessing a real standoff between the government and a consortium of lenders that hold $6.9 billion of Chrysler’s debt. The government is scrambling to find a way to keep Chrysler out of bankruptcy, and to achieve this, the bondholders will have to make ...
Obama Denies Funding to Automakers; What Happens to $1T in CDS?
globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com 3/30/2009 — In news I did not expect to see this month, Obama denies bailout funds for automakers . [Mish Note: In the 15 minutes or so it took me to write this, the link title above was changed from "Obama denies bailout funds for automakers" to "Obama ...