econbrowser.com - 7/31/2009
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The Commerce Department reported today that the seasonally adjusted real value of the nation's production of goods and services fell at a 1% annual rate during the second quarter. That's about as bad as things ever got during the recession of 2001. But after the -5.4% and -6.4% growth rates ...
ContrarianEdge.com - 7/29/2009
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ContrarianEdge.com —
Chinese non-export economy grew 23% in June! Before
you start googling for that number, let me warn...
you. You won’t find it. I’ve computed it using fifth grade math. Here is what we know: exports constitute about 35% of the Chinese economy and they ...
(more)
The Simple Math of “Staggering” Chinese Growth
econbrowser.com - 8/1/2009
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econbrowser.com —
Some additional observations (see Jim Hamilton's take ,
as well as others ) on the GDP release:...
(1) the five year revision indicates that GDP was larger than we thought, but it also declined faster in 2009Q1; (2) GDP growth was lower throughout 2008 ...
(more)
Good News and Bad News from the GDP release
globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com - 8/5/2009
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globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com —
Many are cheering the "recovery". Unfortunately, the recovery
is nothing more than unsustainable government spending, not just...
in the US but globally. David Rosenberg talks about the GDP in Tuesday's Breakfast With Dave . The reason why we remain ...
(more)
Global GDP Rebound Is Underway, But Who's The Buyer?
Comments
Blog Reactions
GDP for 2q2009
Decline and Fall of Western Civilization —
james hamilton at econbrowser hits the data note that one need know from this report: In terms of specific factors contributing to the 2009:Q2 growth rate, consumption spending, housing, nonresidential fixed investment, inventory change, and exports each subtracted almost 1%-- had it not been for the positive contribution from falling imports and increasing government spending, the Q2 number would have been -4.3% instead of -1%. Should we be cheering the fact that falling imports were a key factor preventing GDP from declining even more? ...
links for 2009-08-01
Economist's View —
... The US saving rate: before and after 8:30 am today - News N Economics
Been down so long it looks like up - Econbrowser ...
The Good, The Bad, and The C.A.R.S.
InvivoAnalytics.com —
... covers any new car that meets the mileage requirements, not just American ones. MORE: Been down so long it looks like up MORE: ...
links for 2009-08-02
J. Bradford DeLong's Grasping Reality with All Eight Tentacles —
... Econbrowser: Good News and Bad News from the GDP release
Econbrowser: Been down so long it looks like up
Bookblogging: Failure ...
Sunday links: why history matters
Abnormal Returns —
... received only jealousy-inducing numbers.” (DealBook also Epicurean Dealmaker)
Why “a little inflation” may help at this point in the economic cycle. (NYTimes)
The decline in GDP is the worst since the Great Depression. (Calculated Risk, The Atlantic)
Some reasons for cheer in the GDP report. (Econbrowser)
Cash for clunkers was always about ...
Fed Watch: Is a Jobless Recovery Your Best Friend?
Economist's View —
... to go somewhere.
Which is to say
that no matter how pessimistic you are in the medium and longer term, you need
to recognize the potential for massive moves in markets as risk taking
perpetuates more risk taking. And as long as that risk taking flows in
directions that do not fundamentally change the US jobs and, by extension, wage
picture, it is difficult to imagine the Federal Reserve will do anything but let
the party roll on.
The second
quarter GDP report (Jim
Hamilton and
Menzie Chinn at Econbrowser discuss the details) confirmed what was ...
Related Content
Guest post: Economic recovery and the perverse math of GDP reporting
nakedcapitalism.com 5/8/2009 —
Submitted by Edward Harrison of the site Credit Writedowns Now that everyone is talking about greens hoots and the potential for economic recovery, I thought I would run through the statistics of U.S. GDP with you. The reason I am bringing ...
On Revisions and on Conditioning
econbrowser.com 11/1/2009 — Both have to be "handled with care".
Revisions
We're all tempted to make predictions on the basis of the last data point. And even more difficult to resist is the temptation to make definitive statements on the basis of data that are sure to ...
Good economic news?
econbrowser.com 4/30/2009 — Today's GDP numbers were about what I was expecting. Although economic activity continued its sharp decline, if we continue to follow the script, things should improve.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today that U.S. real GDP fell at a ...
A V-shaped recession?
econbrowser.com 7/2/2009 — As James Morley has pointed out, often a sharp economic downturn is followed by an equally sharp economic recovery. One reason for that is the liquidation of inventories that accompanies any recession and restocking that takes place in recovery. What ...
Trade Procyclicality in the Current Recession: The View from the US
econbrowser.com 10/9/2009 — Paul Krugman recently characterized the current pace of trade activity as worse than that during the Great Depression. And indeed, graphs from Barry Eichengreen and Kevin O'Rourke have been diligent in illustrating how this is the case, most recently ...
The financial return on energy invested
europe.theoildrum.com 6/23/2009 —
Global GDP data from the USDA. Primary energy data and energy prices from the BP statistical reveiw of world energy 2009.
Global GDP has grown steadily and continuously since WWII, in step with a growing global population and primary energy ...
U.S. GDP
measuringworth.org 3/14/2009 — Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country during a given time period. There are two ways to measure GDP: Nominal GDP is the dollar value of production at current-year prices. For ...
What will recovery look like?
econbrowser.com 3/15/2009 — When good news comes, what should we expect to see?
The graph below plots the quarterly percentage change (at an annual rate) for real GDP and some of its key components since 1947. Calculated Risk has noted that the typical recession pattern is ...
China’s Magic Numbers
thebigmoney.com 7/19/2009 — BEIJING-China, on Thursday, announced its second-quarter gross domestic product-a big deal here. It's not just the Chinese government's top priority but a nearly sacrosanct number. Growth came in at an astounding 7.9 percent. But could China's GDP ...
Is Germany Dependent on Exports to Grow?
fistfulofeuros.net 9/30/2009 — The analysis that follows should really be taken along with Edward’s recent thoughts on the Global Imbalances situation as well as his latest economic survey of the current state of play in the German economy .
Essentially, I am going to have a look at what is, arguably, one of the more ...
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