capitalspectator.com - 1/12/2009
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The future is always unclear, and therein lies the chief source of risk in the investment challenge. The degree of risk isn't continuously steady. It ebbs and flows, like market prices and the careers of Hollywood actors.
The fact that risk levels are dynamic suggests a connection. But our ...
Where We Are, Where We're Heading (2009)
market-ticker.denninger.net 1/1/2009 —
Let's score the 2008 edition predictions first: US will enter a recession : Confirmed by NBER. Check. Unemployment will rise north of 5% . Check (bigtime) Housing will not turn in 2008. Major check. The story in 2008 will be ...
Against the Big Stimulus
econlog.econlib.org 1/5/2009 — (January 5, 2009 08:54 AM, by Arnold Kling) After reading Willem Buiter's long piece (pointer from Mark Thoma), I decided that it is time to come out firmly against a large fiscal stimulus. Instead, I would prefer a small stimulus. The case for a ...
Really Scary Fed Charts: NOV, US Bankrupt?
benbittrolff.blogspot.com 11/12/2008 — Fed Defies Transparency Aim in Refusal to Disclose (Update1): “The Federal Reserve is refusing to identify the recipients of almost $2 trillion of emergency loans from American taxpayers or the troubled assets the central bank ...
Federal Reserve balance sheet
econbrowser.com 12/22/2008 — Here I survey how we got here, where things currently stand, and what it all means.
Let me begin by reviewing some first principles of what the Fed is all about. How did the cash currently in your wallet get there? You withdrew it from an ATM, ...
Take Some Political Risks
online.wsj.com 11/11/2008 — After two straight electoral defeats, it is time for a substantial party shake-up. We don't need a feather duster; we need a fire hose. We need to be honest about the root causes of our current financial crisis: loose money, crony capitalism and a ...
Den Of Liars
market-ticker.denninger.net 12/24/2008 —
That would be our government. It of course includes Congress, and until proven otherwise, all who came from Congress , including our President-Elect. Yeah, I know, we only have one President at a time. That's fine. But here's reality: ...
Guest Post: The Fake Recovery
nakedcapitalism.com 4/14/2009 — Submitted by Edward Harrison of the site Credit Writedowns I last posted on "Credt Writedowns" on Thursday before the Easter Holidays in two posts very much at odds with one another. The overall thrust of the first post was that the financial ...
Quantitative easing
econbrowser.com 12/16/2008 — Today's announcement from the Federal Reserve marks the end of the road for Plan A (fighting the recession by lowering interest rates), and the beginning of ... what?
The Fed's announcement begins :
The Federal Open Market Committee decided ...
GDP Goosed By TARP
ritholtz.com 2/2/2009 — Over the weekend, a hedgie friend added to our understanding of how bad GDP really was.
We already knew that the rise in inventory contributed 1.29% points to GDP growth. Without the inventory build, the GDP number would have been down 5.1%.And, it ...
"The Risks of Risk Management"
valueplays.blogspot.com 12/10/2008 — Had this emailed to me by a reader... The risks of risk management Banks now employ thousands of highly-qualified mathematicians to quantify risk for them. So why did they not foresee the credit crunch? Quantitative finance lecturer Paul ...
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