thebigmoney.com - 7/19/2009
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BEIJING-China, on Thursday, announced its second-quarter gross domestic product-a big deal here. It's not just the Chinese government's top priority but a nearly sacrosanct number. Growth came in at an astounding 7.9 percent. But could China's GDP really grow that fast even with the collapse of global trade?
Economists at top brokerages and investment banks say yes. Debate raged a decade ago over whether or not to trust the data or how much officials at various layers were fudging the numbers. But ...
krugman.blogs.nytimes.com - 7/15/2009
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krugman.blogs.nytimes.com —
Jan Hatzius of Goldman Sachs has a new
note (no link) responding to claims that government support...
for the economy is postponing the necessary adjustment. He doesn't think much of that argument; neither do I. But one passage in particular caught my ...
(more)
Deficits saved the world
macroblog.typepad.com - 7/25/2009
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macroblog.typepad.com —
Earlier this week my boss, Atlanta Fed President
Dennis Lockhart, weighed in with his views about the...
shape of the economic recovery to come while speaking at a meeting of the Nashville, Tenn., Rotary Club : "The economy is stabilizing and ...
(more)
A look at the recovery
macroblog.typepad.com - 7/24/2009
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macroblog.typepad.com —
Brad DeLong has taken a look at the
job market and is counting himself among the economists...
who admit that, "Well, I just got it wrong." According to DeLong: "… the rise in the unemployment rate during a recession should be a fraction of the ...
(more)
Unemployment rate: Count me surprised
Comments
Blog Reactions
Sunday links: Internet investing
Abnormal Returns —
... View)
There will likely be two bottoms for the housing market. (Calculated Risk)
“If a consumer agency had been set up 20 years ago, would the subprime mortgage crisis have been prevented“ (NYTimes)
“Hope will not end the recession.” (Howard Lindzon)
Is China really growing at 8%? (The Big Money)
Crowdsourcing works when it is ...
Morning Reads 7-21-2009
Portfolio Tilt —
... Tales of an LBO Gone Wrong (Deal Journal) 3.) Overbought/Oversold Stocks Weekly (Bespoke Investment) 4.) High Yield Spreads Back Below 2002 Bear Market Highs (Bespoke Investment) 5.) The Main Difference Between Europe and USA (Funny Picture) (OptionARMageddon) 6.) Apple Brewing Ahead of Announcements (Daily Options Report) 7.) Good Malcom Gladwell Article on the Overconfidence of Banks and the Consequences (The New Yorker) 8.) China's Magic Numbers (The Big Money) 9.) Large Bank Loses $7.9 Billion: CDS Involed ...
Links 7/21/09
naked capitalism —
... Worth Little, on Bailout Floyd Norris, New York Times. The critics are correct that Neil Barofsky's $23.7 trillion number does not reflect the actual damage taxpayers will suffer, but they miss an important point. That figure is a combo plate of hard dollar expenditures like the TARP, plus guarantees and special facilities, which are tantamount to credit lines and guarantees. The fact that the POTENTIAL support extended is this large is a politically significant fact. China’s Magic Numbers: Is the republic really growing at 8 percent a year? April Rabkin, The Big ...
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The financial return on energy invested
europe.theoildrum.com 6/23/2009 —
Global GDP data from the USDA. Primary energy data and energy prices from the BP statistical reveiw of world energy 2009.
Global GDP has grown steadily and continuously since WWII, in step with a growing global population and primary energy ...
Good economic news?
econbrowser.com 4/30/2009 — Today's GDP numbers were about what I was expecting. Although economic activity continued its sharp decline, if we continue to follow the script, things should improve.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today that U.S. real GDP fell at a ...
U.S. GDP
measuringworth.org 3/14/2009 — Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country during a given time period. There are two ways to measure GDP: Nominal GDP is the dollar value of production at current-year prices. For ...
A V-shaped recession?
econbrowser.com 7/2/2009 — As James Morley has pointed out, often a sharp economic downturn is followed by an equally sharp economic recovery. One reason for that is the liquidation of inventories that accompanies any recession and restocking that takes place in recovery. What ...
Preliminary Analysis of the President’s Budget
cboblog.cbo.gov 3/21/2009 — We have just released our latest projections for the budget and economic outlook, updating the projections published in early January 2009. In addition, we have reviewed the President’s budgetary proposals contained in the February publication A New ...
Good News and Bad News from the GDP release
econbrowser.com 8/1/2009 — Some additional observations (see Jim Hamilton's take , as well as others ) on the GDP release: (1) the five year revision indicates that GDP was larger than we thought, but it also declined faster in 2009Q1; (2) GDP growth was lower throughout 2008 ...
Is Germany Dependent on Exports to Grow?
fistfulofeuros.net 9/30/2009 — The analysis that follows should really be taken along with Edward’s recent thoughts on the Global Imbalances situation as well as his latest economic survey of the current state of play in the German economy .
Essentially, I am going to have a look at what is, arguably, one of the more ...
The 4 percent solution
krugman.blogs.nytimes.com 9/29/2009 — If we get real health care reform AND we get a sane political scene the long-term fiscal outlook is serious but not scary.
On Revisions and on Conditioning
econbrowser.com 11/1/2009 — Both have to be "handled with care".
Revisions
We're all tempted to make predictions on the basis of the last data point. And even more difficult to resist is the temptation to make definitive statements on the basis of data that are sure to ...
My Bizarre Monetary Theory, Continued
econlog.econlib.org 9/25/2009 — (September 22, 2009 08:32 AM, by Arnold Kling) Before I respond to Bryan's comments, let me first recommend the two Scott Sumner papers that he mentions. This paper develops a theory that cultural values drive economic policy, which in turn drives ...