nytimes.com - 7/1/2009
—
Timothy Geithner, left, Christina Romer, an economist, and Lawrence Summers, the top economics adviser. President Obama's advisers have been overly optimistic about the jobless rate.
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Unemployment Forecast: Too Much "Hope"
Calculated Risk —
From David Leonhardt at the NY Times: A Forecast With Hope Built In In the weeks just before President Obama took office, his economic advisers made a mistake. They got a little carried away with hope. ... Without the stimulus, they saw the unemployment rate — then 7.2 percent — rising above 8 percent in 2009 and peaking at 9 percent next year. With the stimulus, the advisers said, unemployment would probably peak at 8 percent late this year. We now know that this forecast was terribly optimistic. Here is the January forecast with the ...
Back to the Stimulus Debate: W, Timing, the States, and Baselines
Econbrowser —
... One digression on bureaucratic procedures. In the day before yesterday's NYT, David Leonhardt chastises the Administration for using models that were too optimistic. I certainly agree in retrospect the Administration's baseline forecast was too optimistic. Two observations: First, it's important to realize that the end-February assessments were based upon early January forecasts completed by the previous (Bush) Administration, and finalized on February 3 ...
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