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oldprof.typepad.com - 8/7/2009
Employment Report Preview
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Each month we ask the question, "What change in payroll employment would be consistent with other economic data from the same time period (the middle of the prior month)? This is not a forecast, per se , since we do not posit any causal relationship among these variables. They are all ...
It's not over yet
econbrowser.com - 8/9/2009
It's not over yet
— econbrowser.com — Some are greeting Friday's employment report as an all-clear signal. But my advice is, keep your helmet... on-- they're still shooting real bullets out there. Let's start with the good news. I first called attention to the favorable turn in new ... (more) It's not over yet

Comments vote down Abnormal Returns found this 8/9/2009found this
The Employment Report and the Birth/Death Adjustment
oldprof.typepad.com - 8/7/2009
The Employment Report and the Birth/Death Adjustment
— oldprof.typepad.com — Nearly everyone interested in the markets pays special attention to the monthly employment situation report. Briefing.com gives... it the highest rating for importance. CNBC commentators todaysaid that everyone was breathless, waiting for the ... (more) The Employment Report and the Birth/Death Adjustment

Comments vote down Abnormal Returns found this 8/7/2009found this
Black states
krugman.blogs.nytimes.com - 8/4/2009
Black states
— krugman.blogs.nytimes.com — A slight followup on my last post. The BLS conveniently provides a map of state unemployment rates... across the country, which is worth looking at: What you see, if you look at the black states - states with 10+ percent unemployment - are two great ... (more) Black states

Comments vote down J. Bradford DeLong's Grasping Reality with All Eight ... found this 8/4/2009found this

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Daily Markets:  The US Employment Report And The Birth/Death Adjustment

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The US Employment Report And The Birth/Death Adjustment
Daily Markets — ... last recession.  The critics complain that the residual becomes a larger portion of net job change.  In fact, the process is accurately capturing the residual factor.  It should become larger as a percentage of net job changes, and it does. Briefly put, the critics make the mistake of ignoring the imputation step, the most important part of the process, and focusing on the residual adjustment. Why This Matters Here at “A Dash” we have had some very bearish forecasts on employment, including Friday’s report .  We have no reason to make things seem better than they are.  The ...

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