voxeu.org - 7/3/2009
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Caroline Freund , 3 July 2009 The collapse in trade has been unprecedentedly severe. This column examines potential explanations. While the global fragmentation of production has increased the responsiveness of trade flows to drops in demand, trade also responds more sharply to GDP during ...
morganstanley.com - 7/6/2009
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morganstanley.com —
United States America's Fiscal Train Wreck July 06,
2009 By Richard Berner | New York America's long-awaited...
fiscal train wreck is now underway. Depending on policy actions taken now and over the next few years, federal deficits will likely average as ...
(more)
Global Economic Forum
econbrowser.com - 7/2/2009
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econbrowser.com —
As James Morley has pointed out, often a
sharp economic downturn is followed by an equally sharp...
economic recovery. One reason for that is the liquidation of inventories that accompanies any recession and restocking that takes place in recovery. What ...
(more)
A V-shaped recession?
cboblog.cbo.gov - 6/26/2009
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cboblog.cbo.gov —
Today CBO released the Long-Term Budget Outlook .
Under current law, the federal budget is on an...
unsustainable path—meaning that federal debt will continue to grow much faster than the economy over the long run. Although great uncertainty surrounds ...
(more)
Long-Term Budget Outlook
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links for 2009-07-03
Economist's View —
... Explaining the trade collapse - voxeu.org
Treasury's View of PPIP, an Update - The Stash
Bring the ...
Good News and Bad News from the GDP release
Econbrowser —
... ; in contrast Freund believes that the dropoff is explicable in terms of elasticities. How fast trade volumes bounce back depends upon the importance of each factor, and the pace of resolution of the credit crunch ...
Banking crises and exports: Lessons from the past
VoxEU.org: Recent Articles —
... first time since 1982, global trade flows will not grow. The latest IMF projections expect global trade in goods and services to drop 11% this year and stagnate next year. This collapse in trade has spread the global recession far beyond the couple dozen nations whose banks were involved in the financial wizardry that sparked the crisis. The size and synchronicity of the trade collapse raises new and pressing questions about the relationship between banking crises and exports growth ( Freund 2009 ). New research on supply-side effects Financial constraints arising during ...
Trade Procyclicality in the Current Recession: The View from the US
Econbrowser —
Paul Krugman recently characterized the current pace of trade activity as worse than that during the Great Depression. And indeed, graphs from Barry Eichengreen and Kevin O'Rourke have been diligent in illustrating how this is the case, most recently in this September VoxEU post. Caroline Freund ([pdf] here) as well as the IMF in its most recent World Economic Outlook (Box 1.1) atrribute the sharp drop-off in world trade to high income elasticities, in part associated with the high degree of vertical integration that characterizes the ...
The trade collapse: The role of product quality
VoxEU.org: Recent Articles —
The volume of world trade plummeted between the last quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009. Recent forecasts by the IMF (2009) predict a reduction of world trade volume by 11% (and value by 23%) for the year 2009. This is by far larger than the 1.3% contraction of the world GDP. The CEPR book ...
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The financial return on energy invested
europe.theoildrum.com 6/23/2009 —
Global GDP data from the USDA. Primary energy data and energy prices from the BP statistical reveiw of world energy 2009.
Global GDP has grown steadily and continuously since WWII, in step with a growing global population and primary energy ...
Good economic news?
econbrowser.com 4/30/2009 — Today's GDP numbers were about what I was expecting. Although economic activity continued its sharp decline, if we continue to follow the script, things should improve.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today that U.S. real GDP fell at a ...
U.S. GDP
measuringworth.org 3/14/2009 — Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country during a given time period. There are two ways to measure GDP: Nominal GDP is the dollar value of production at current-year prices. For ...
China’s Magic Numbers
thebigmoney.com 7/19/2009 — BEIJING-China, on Thursday, announced its second-quarter gross domestic product-a big deal here. It's not just the Chinese government's top priority but a nearly sacrosanct number. Growth came in at an astounding 7.9 percent. But could China's GDP ...
Measuring economic growth from outer space
VoxEU.org 9/2/2009 — David N. Weil , 2 September 2009 GDP data is often poorly measured, especially for sub-Saharan Africa. This column shows that satellite data on lights at night can be used to enhance the quality of GDP growth measures. Using rainfall and satellite ...
Preliminary Analysis of the President’s Budget
cboblog.cbo.gov 3/21/2009 — We have just released our latest projections for the budget and economic outlook, updating the projections published in early January 2009. In addition, we have reviewed the President’s budgetary proposals contained in the February publication A New ...
Good News and Bad News from the GDP release
econbrowser.com 8/1/2009 — Some additional observations (see Jim Hamilton's take , as well as others ) on the GDP release: (1) the five year revision indicates that GDP was larger than we thought, but it also declined faster in 2009Q1; (2) GDP growth was lower throughout 2008 ...
Meanwhile, Elsewhere . . .
baselinescenario.com 1/28/2009 — All the hubbub about the new Obama Administration and the probably-impending bank rescue plan has diverted my attention a bit from goings-on in the rest of the world. I decided to spend a little time checking in, thanks to the magic of the Internet. ...
Is Germany Dependent on Exports to Grow?
fistfulofeuros.net 9/30/2009 — The analysis that follows should really be taken along with Edward’s recent thoughts on the Global Imbalances situation as well as his latest economic survey of the current state of play in the German economy .
Essentially, I am going to have a look at what is, arguably, one of the more ...
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