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oldprof.typepad.com - 6/5/2009
Forecasting the Jobs Report
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MarketWatch tells us that today's selling was concern about the labor market and the resulting economic contribution of consumers. We sympathize with journalists who need a daily lead to explain modest market moves. We are amazed that market participants suddenly started to worry about ...
Unemployment Compared to Stress Test Scenarios, and Diffusion Index
calculatedriskblog.com - 6/5/2009
Unemployment Compared to Stress Test Scenarios, and Diffusion Index
— calculatedriskblog.com — Note: earlier Employment post: Employment Report: 345K Jobs Lost, 9.4% Unemployment Rate . Click on graph for... larger image in new window. This graph shows the unemployment rate compared to the stress test economic scenarios on a quarterly basis ... (more) Unemployment Compared to Stress Test Scenarios, and ...

Comments vote down Rolfe Winkler found this 6/5/2009found this
Birth Death Adjustment Goosed NFP
ritholtz.com - 6/7/2009
Birth Death Adjustment Goosed NFP
— ritholtz.com — For the past few years, I have been railing about data nonsense such as Core CPI, Birth/Death... adjustment, Home Affordability Index, etc. I sometimes forget that not every current TBP reader has been tracking this stuff since the mid-2000s with us.  ... (more) Birth Death Adjustment Goosed NFP

Comments vote down J. Bradford DeLong's Grasping Reality with All Eight ... found this 6/7/2009found this
oldprof.typepad.com - 6/11/2009
The Most Important Stat: Bloggers versus Experts
— oldprof.typepad.com — Market pundits always try to explain modest changes in the broad averages. Today their stories are all... wrong. Toady, the most important statistic came from Jack Hough at Smart Money The Story Hough did a piece on the credibility of government ... (more) The Most Important Stat: Bloggers versus Experts

Comments vote down Abnormal Returns found this 6/11/2009found this

Blog Reactions

FT Alphaville:  Further reading

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Blog Reactions

Further reading
FT Alphaville — Elsewhere on Friday, - The quants must be crazy. - Paul Wilmott : Revenge of the nerd. - Exponentially curb your S&P enthusiasm . - On ‘forecasting’ the jobs report . - “ Being right may be a necessary component of trader profitability, but it is not sufficient.” - Journal ranking for the ambitious economist . - “ It’s about time . The SEC has finally charged a high level executive in the banking industry in connection with activities that led to the largest bubble in US history.” - The Hamptons stress test. - “We’re ...

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Employment Report Preview
oldprof.typepad.com 8/7/2009 — Each month we ask the question, "What change in payroll employment would be consistent with other economic data from the same time period (the middle of the prior month)? This is not a forecast, per se , since we do not posit any causal relationship ...
Time to Remove the "L" from "BLS"
globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com 4/4/2009 — For seven consecutive months the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has revised downward, prior job loss data. The New York Times mentioned this on March 6 in Will Job Numbers Keep Being Revised Down? Robert Barbera, the chief economist of ITG, points ...
ADP Goes Back to the Drawing Board
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It's not over yet
econbrowser.com 8/9/2009 — Some are greeting Friday's employment report as an all-clear signal. But my advice is, keep your helmet on-- they're still shooting real bullets out there. Let's start with the good news. I first called attention to the favorable turn in new ...
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globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com 11/7/2008 — Before taking a look at the monthly jobs data, let's take a look at weekly claims. The US Department of Labor is reporting Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims continue to rise. Seasonally Adjusted In the week ending Nov. 1, the advance figure for ...
Jobs Contract 16th Straight Month; Unemployment Rate Soars to 8.9%
globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com 5/8/2009 — This morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the April Employment Report . Nonfarm payroll employment continued to decline in April (-539,000), and the unemployment rate rose from 8.5 to 8.9 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of ...
Intuition and Economics
oldprof.typepad.com 7/10/2009 — (This is the second installment of our series describing how the BLS might respond to critics of the Birth/Death adjustment. See Part One here. ) Everyone uses intuition, making decisions that seem instinctive rather than the result of a carefully ...
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calculatedriskblog.com 5/6/2009 — I added a caution with the ADP employment report this morning: "The ADP employment report hasn't been very useful in predicting the BLS numbers ..." Several readers have sent me graphs showing that ADP and BLS employment numbers track pretty well over ...
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bls.gov 10/11/2008 — Contacts Technical Assistance: Media Contact: Regional Office Assistance: Information about the Import/Export Price Indexes and other BLS data may be obtained from any of the eight BLS Regional Economic Analysis and Information offices . Fax on ...
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The smart phone world is about to shift its attention away from the weekend launch of the Palm (PALM) Pre over to the Apple (AAPL) Worldwide Developers Conference , where Phil Schiller is scheduled to deliver the company’s keynote. ...