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VoxEU.org - 2/11/2009

Deflation or disinflation?

— VoxEU.org — Robert Ophèle , 11 February 2009 The recent rapid fall in inflation, amidst a financial crisis and... a very sharp economic slowdown, has raised the spectre of deflation. But, this column argues, current dynamics in France and the euro area are actually ... (more) Deflation or disinflation?

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Deflation

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creditwritedowns.com - 2/4/2009

Goldman says fund managers expect deflation

— creditwritedowns.com — Goldman Sachs London conducted a poll of fund managers today that had interesting results. The poll demonstrated... that fund managers are expecting deflation more than inflation and that they expect the U.S. or Asia to escape the downturn first (and ... (more) Goldman says fund managers expect deflation

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Deflation

Inflation

Depression

Comments vote downundo vote up The Mess That Greenspan Made found this 2/4/2009found this

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krugman.blogs.nytimes.com - 2/11/2009

Deflation risks, again

— krugman.blogs.nytimes.com — Brad DeLong calls my attention to an off-point comment by Greg Mankiw; I worry about deflation in... a couple of years, Greg responds by saying that we're not there yet. Huh? It's like all the people who said that we couldn't have a recession because ... (more) Deflation risks, again

Currencies

Deflation

Comments vote downundo vote up J. Bradford DeLong's Grasping Reality with All Eight ... found this 2/11/2009found this

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Economists warn on China deflation
FT Alphaville — China faces a bout of deflation, economists warned Tuesday as data revealed that inflation dropped to its lowest in 2½ years in January and that the price of goods leaving factories fell 3.3% in January. Consumer price inflation fell for the ninth consecutive month to 1% in January from 1.2% the previous month as prices for clothing, transport and housing tumbled. Several economists predict inflation will be minus-1% in February and factory-gate prices will decline 6.3%. But analysts say China will avoid a prolonged period of deflation because of Beijing’s aggressive monetary ...

Words from the (investment) wise 2.15.09
The Big Picture — ... month as prices for clothing, transport and housing tumbled. “Several economists forecast that consumer prices in China would begin to fall from this month. “However, most analysts say that China will avoid a prolonged period of deflation, which could lead to a sharp drop in output as consumers and companies delay spending, because of the aggressive monetary and fiscal stimulus policies introduced by the Chinese authorities.” Source: Geoff Dye, Financial Times, February 10, 2009. Financial Times: Japan faces ...

A deflationary dragon with excess capacity
FT Alphaville — ... of $406bn, about 8.2 per cent of forecast 2009 GDP. The slightly smaller current account surplus means among other things that China will ‘only’ add $300bn to its FX reserves in 2009, compared to our estimate of $420bn in 2008 — which means its appetite for US debt will be smaller and that private buyers will have to take up more of the slack to prevent the expanded supply from pushing up auction rates. Related links: China: ‘Can I super-size my stimulus? ‘ - FT Alphaville Economists warn of China deflation - FT