ft.com - 11/18/2008
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Would you believe that we shall actually have significant deflation in the US next year? And the year after that? And flat consumer prices for the year following? That's happened only once in a developed country since the 1930s - when Japan recorded a negative 1.6 per cent consumer price index ...
globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com - 11/12/2008
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globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com —
As one might expect in a credit crunch,
default risk is rising. One measure of that risk
is corporate bond yields. Let's take a look and see how various grades of bonds are performing. Click on any chart in this series to see a sharper image. ...
(more)
Industrial Bond Yields Strongly Support Deflation Thesis
telegraph.co.uk - 11/13/2008
lewrockwell.com - 11/17/2008
Comments
Blog Reactions
Links 11/18/08
naked capitalism —
... In a weird world, yields on Tips point to deflation John Dizard, Financial Times. Dizard argues TIPS are a screaming buy, depressed due to relative illiquiidty, and that their pricing makes sense only if you believe we will have three years of pretty pronounced deflation. ...
Tuesday links: pirate punditry
Abnormal Returns —
... U.S. TIPS point to deflation. (FT.com also Capital Spectator)
Everything is trading together. (MarketBeat)
Stock market expected returns. (Mankiw Blog)
The S&P 500 is trading some 32% below its 200 day moving average. (Bespoke)
Paulson & Co. has begun buying beaten down mortgage securities. (Clusterstock)
Some one is making ...
The Week That Was November 17 – 23, 2008
The Big Picture —
... following? That’s happened only once in a developed country since the 1930s - when Japan recorded a negative 1.6% consumer price index for 2002.
“Yet, if you believe the yields on US Treasury inflation protected bonds, or Tips, we shall have a 2.2% fall in prices in 2009, a 2.5% decline in 2010 and only flat prices in 2011. If that turns out to be true, the real interest rate burden on even the highest-rated borrowers will be extremely hard to bear.”
Source: John Dizard, Financial Times, November 18, 2008.
John Davies (WestLB): Buy German ...
Time for a change at the Fed
Econbrowser —
... So maybe everything's OK? I think not. Two forward-looking indicators are profoundly troubling. First, the yields on inflation-indexed Treasuries for medium-term maturities are actually higher than those for regular Treasuries. If taken at face value, that means investors anticipate an average deflation over the next 5 years at a -1.29% annual rate. Perhaps one might dismiss this as another indication that the usual arbitrage activity is completely absent in current markets, so that the nominal-TIPS spread is no longer a meaningful indicator. ...
Hamilton: The Fed Needs a New Plan
Economist's View —
... Two forward-looking indicators are
profoundly troubling. First, the yields on inflation-indexed Treasuries for
medium-term maturities are actually higher than those for regular Treasuries. If
taken at face value, that means investors anticipate an average deflation
over the next 5 years at a -1.29% annual rate. Perhaps one might dismiss this as
another indication that the usual arbitrage activity is
completely absent in current markets, so that the nominal-TIPS spread is no
longer a meaningful indicator. ... ...
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deflation in china
declineandfallofwesterncivilization.blogspot.com 12/4/2008 — the call from morgan stanley . Despite still relatively high CPI and PPI inflation at the current juncture, we believe that a perfect storm for deflation is gathering strength under the surface and is expected to bring about a deflationary impulse in 1H09, which may morph into persistent ...
Deflation Worries
gregmankiw.blogspot.com 11/21/2008 — From Google Trends , here is a graph of the i nternet search volume for the word "deflation." Note the sizable spike of late. Presumably, this is not because motorists are suddenly worried about their tires running out of air.
DEFLATION ?
angrybear.blogspot.com 3/22/2009 — By Spencer, Did you know that over the last six months the compound growth of the total CPI was -5.0%. Of course that is up from January when it was - 5.8%. You have to go back to 1948 to find actual deflation like this, when it bottomed at -4.2%.. ...
Embrace Deflation - It's The Cure, Not The Problem
globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com 6/28/2009 — Concern over Japanese deflation is increasing. Please consider Japan Succumbs to Deflation as Consumer Prices Fall Record 1.1% . Japan’s consumer prices fell at a record pace in May, adding to the risk that deflation will become entrenched and hamper ...
TIPs Yields
crossingwallstreet.com 11/21/2008 — Here's a look at the current TIPs yields-to-maturity listed by maturity date.
Deflation or disinflation?
VoxEU.org 2/11/2009 — Robert Ophèle , 11 February 2009 The recent rapid fall in inflation, amidst a financial crisis and a very sharp economic slowdown, has raised the spectre of deflation. But, this column argues, current dynamics in France and the euro area are actually ...
Deflation?
knzn.blogspot.com 11/29/2008 — The bad news is that the headaches and fatigue you’ve been experiencing aren’t just stress. According to our tests, you have a serious illness, and if it’s not treated soon, you could be dead within a year or two. The good news is that the treatment ...
Deflation?
economistsview.typepad.com 4/16/2009 — With the decline in consumer prices today, people are beginning to talk about
the risk of deflation once again, though it doesn't appear there's much worry
since the decline was driven mainly by energy prices:
For the first time in over a half ...
Deflation has become inevitable
londonbanker.blogspot.com 12/13/2008 — For a while now I have been on the fence on the inflation/deflation issue – whether the massive monetisation of bad debts by central banks and governments will lead to rapidly escalating inflation as currencies are debased or, alternatively, lead to ...
THE DEFLATION BATTLE RAGES ON
capitalspectator.com 1/16/2009 — For the first time since 1955, the consumer price index fell on a year-over-year basis. Last month's seasonally adjusted CPI slipped 0.1% for the 12 months through December, the Labor Department reports. On a monthly basis, the decline in CPI is more ...
Should We Be Scared of Deflation? —
The Big Money 11/20/2008
The U.S. government today reported that inflation dropped by 1 percent in October—the biggest drop in the 61 years inflation records have been kept. Last month, The Big Money ran this piece by Martha C. White, explaining what deflation might ...
Deflation Fears Sucks Air Out of Markets —
The Big Money 11/20/2008
Sound the alarms! Consumer prices are in a free-fall, stoking fears the economy is on the precipice of deflation. The Labor Department on Wednesday reported the prices of consumer goods fell by 1 percent in October , the biggest one month drop in ...
Deflation Fears Suck Air out of Markets —
The Big Money 11/20/2008
Sound the alarms! Consumer prices are in a freefall, stoking fears the economy is on the precipice of deflation. The Labor Department on Wednesday reported the prices of consumer goods fell by 1 percent in October , the biggest one-month drop in 61 ...
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