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macroblog.typepad.com - 8/7/2009

Every recovery is the same; each recovery is different

— macroblog.typepad.com — Two weeks ago, macroblog looked at the rather pessimistic expectations for what the economic recovery might look... like this time around. Included was part of the narrative noting that structural adjustments are likely to impede a quick snapback in ... (more) Every recovery is the same; each recovery is different

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Lunch Wrap
FT Alphaville — ... content Lunch Wrap Posted by Paul Murphy on Aug 13 12:16. On FT Alphaville on Thursday morning, -  Great, great under-expectations - what the pundits say -  Krugman makes a $1.7m Manhattan bet -  The ‘ all you can fly ‘ jet pass -  Yanzhou swoops on Felix -  John Paulson’s ‘ success-breeds-success ‘ strategy - British Land, the Pru and a dead tortoise on Markets Live - Further reading On FT.com, - France and Germany return to growth - Growing risk appetite lifts global markets -  Prudential raises ...

For credit investors at least, ‘the worst is over’
FT Alphaville — ... credit markets from geopolitical factors has risen. Overall, however, the survey suggests investors believe the markets overall are lower risk. See chart: Influence of Thematic Risks on Credit Markets Over the Next 12 Months Chart - Fitch Ratings European Senior Credit Investor Survey, June 2009 As of end-June, the majority believed, as they did in Q1, that the recession will last for another 12 to 24 months - so Thursday’s news of economic expansion in Germany and France will have come as a surprise .  But then the proportion of those thinking it would last less than 12 ...

Eurozone data raise recovery hopes
FT Alphaville — The German and French economies unexpectedly bounced back in the second quarter, raising hopes of a eurozone recovery. After four consecutive quarters of negative growth, the region’s two biggest economies each grew 0.3% in the quarter through June, data showed on Thursday. The figures confounded economists after German GDP plunged 3.5% and French GDP fell 1.3% in the first quarter. As a result, the eurozone’s Q2 GDP fell only 0.1%, defying forecasts of a 0.5% drop.

Words from the (investment) wise — August 16, 2009
The Big Picture — ... US economy, which shrank only 0.3% in the second quarter on a quarterly basis. But the UK saw its GDP shrink 0.8%, prompting criticism of the government’s handling of the economy. “Erik Nielsen, chief economist for Europe at Goldman Sachs in London, said: ‘If you look at the US and Europe, pretty much everyone had a better second quarter than expected a few months ago - with the exception of the UK.’” Source: Gerrit Wiesmann and Ben Hall, Financial Times, August 13, 2009. Ifo: Improvement in economic climate for euro ...