econbrowser.com - 8/1/2009
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Some additional observations (see Jim Hamilton's take , as well as others ) on the GDP release: (1) the five year revision indicates that GDP was larger than we thought, but it also declined faster in 2009Q1; (2) GDP growth was lower throughout 2008 than earlier estimated; (3) GDP growth in ...
econbrowser.com - 7/31/2009
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econbrowser.com —
The Commerce Department reported today that the seasonally
adjusted real value of the nation's production of goods...
and services fell at a 1% annual rate during the second quarter. That's about as bad as things ever got during the recession of 2001. ...
(more)
Been down so long it looks like up
ContrarianEdge.com - 7/29/2009
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ContrarianEdge.com —
Chinese non-export economy grew 23% in June! Before
you start googling for that number, let me warn...
you. You won’t find it. I’ve computed it using fifth grade math. Here is what we know: exports constitute about 35% of the Chinese economy and they ...
(more)
The Simple Math of “Staggering” Chinese Growth
globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com - 8/5/2009
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globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com —
Many are cheering the "recovery". Unfortunately, the recovery
is nothing more than unsustainable government spending, not just...
in the US but globally. David Rosenberg talks about the GDP in Tuesday's Breakfast With Dave . The reason why we remain ...
(more)
Global GDP Rebound Is Underway, But Who's The Buyer?
Comments
Blog Reactions
The Good, The Bad, and The C.A.R.S.
InvivoAnalytics.com —
... throws up in America’s protectionist face. The bad news is that consumers are not spending. The good news is “the stim” appears to be working its way into the GDP numbers, filling in for a continued lack consumer spending. In any event, seems to be plenty left to go around for 2010. And don’t fret too much Tyler, the C.A.R.S. program covers any new car that meets the mileage requirements, not just American ones. MORE: Been down so long it looks like up MORE: Good News and Bad News from the GDP release MORE: Economists React: ‘Hopefully Bottom of ...
links for 2009-08-02
Economist's View —
... Failure of the EMH - John Quiggen
Good News and Bad News from the GDP release - Econbrowser
The ...
links for 2009-08-02
J. Bradford DeLong's Grasping Reality with All Eight Tentacles —
... Matthew Yglesias » Majority of White Southerners Doubt Obama’s US Birth
Econbrowser: Good News and Bad News from the GDP release
Econbrowser: Been down so long it ...
Further reading
FT Alphaville —
Elsewhere on Monday, - A little something about GDP revisions, and a little more. - An artificial recovery? - US hedge funds managers turn to gold. - The crackdown on evil oil speculators is a good thing. - Homebuilder ETF breakout. - There’s a little more to economics than just “greed is good”. - Urban legends: Coca-Cola’s secret forumla. - Citigroup can’t keep Phibro. - Twitter usage in pictures. - How people spend their day. - Dragon-kings, black swans and the prediction of ...
Fed Watch: Is a Jobless Recovery Your Best Friend?
Economist's View —
... and
Menzie Chinn at Econbrowser discuss the details) confirmed what was already
well known - the pace of deterioration slowed markedly, setting the stage for a
growth rebound in the second half of this year. The game now is ...
"Honesty, Dishonesty and Competence"
Economist's View —
... Fifth, ...As someone who had to "fact-check" numbers going into
White House policy documents and speeches on occasion, I can say that
the numbers are verifiable... But the more substantive question is
whether the math is so nonsensical. As I showed quite clearly in
this post, the number Dr. Romer obtained was easily calculated and
plausible. ...
Related Content
On Revisions and on Conditioning
econbrowser.com 11/1/2009 — Both have to be "handled with care".
Revisions
We're all tempted to make predictions on the basis of the last data point. And even more difficult to resist is the temptation to make definitive statements on the basis of data that are sure to ...
Good economic news?
econbrowser.com 4/30/2009 — Today's GDP numbers were about what I was expecting. Although economic activity continued its sharp decline, if we continue to follow the script, things should improve.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today that U.S. real GDP fell at a ...
A V-shaped recession?
econbrowser.com 7/2/2009 — As James Morley has pointed out, often a sharp economic downturn is followed by an equally sharp economic recovery. One reason for that is the liquidation of inventories that accompanies any recession and restocking that takes place in recovery. What ...
U.S. GDP
measuringworth.org 3/14/2009 — Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country during a given time period. There are two ways to measure GDP: Nominal GDP is the dollar value of production at current-year prices. For ...
The financial return on energy invested
europe.theoildrum.com 6/23/2009 —
Global GDP data from the USDA. Primary energy data and energy prices from the BP statistical reveiw of world energy 2009.
Global GDP has grown steadily and continuously since WWII, in step with a growing global population and primary energy ...
Trade Procyclicality in the Current Recession: The View from the US
econbrowser.com 10/9/2009 — Paul Krugman recently characterized the current pace of trade activity as worse than that during the Great Depression. And indeed, graphs from Barry Eichengreen and Kevin O'Rourke have been diligent in illustrating how this is the case, most recently ...
Is Germany Dependent on Exports to Grow?
fistfulofeuros.net 9/30/2009 — The analysis that follows should really be taken along with Edward’s recent thoughts on the Global Imbalances situation as well as his latest economic survey of the current state of play in the German economy .
Essentially, I am going to have a look at what is, arguably, one of the more ...
China’s Magic Numbers
thebigmoney.com 7/19/2009 — BEIJING-China, on Thursday, announced its second-quarter gross domestic product-a big deal here. It's not just the Chinese government's top priority but a nearly sacrosanct number. Growth came in at an astounding 7.9 percent. But could China's GDP ...
What Does the Collapse of US Imports and Exports Collapse Signify?
econbrowser.com 5/5/2009 —
The Collapse in Relation to GDP
In an earlier post, I discussed the startling decline in US imports [0] . Brad Setser has also reported on this phenomenon. This decline is not restricted to the United States, as noted in an OECD report released ...
What will recovery look like?
econbrowser.com 3/15/2009 — When good news comes, what should we expect to see?
The graph below plots the quarterly percentage change (at an annual rate) for real GDP and some of its key components since 1947. Calculated Risk has noted that the typical recession pattern is ...
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