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Tuesday links: a common bond
Abnormal Returns —
... but there are seasons (assumptions) for models.” (Humble Student of the Markets)
This long term trendline business is more ambiguous than it looks. (Big Picture)
Direxion’s family of “leveraged” and “inverse” ETFs are garnering assets and criticism. (WSJ.com)
How contango affects the crude oil ETFs. (market folly)
The U.S. dollar is back near its recent ...
Readings 01/21/09
Paul Kedrosky's Infectious Greed —
How Contango Affects Crude Oil ETF's and ETN's (market folly) Gold to gain thru 2012 (Bloomberg) Nice BBC special on probability (Source) IPO Drought Hides Bigger Tech Woes (GigaOm) Big companies still hate short-sellers (II) Option trades at GE get attention (Bloomberg) Life Insurers Seek Lower Cash Cushions (Washingtonpost) GM Fell Behind Toyota in 2008 (WSJ) Analysts chase lower market with lower estimates ( ...
Thursday's Links
Todd Sullivan's - ValuePlays —
... - Andy Swan has a nice post about why these are a waste - Always check your kids homework!!! - Track Obama's campaign promises here - Market Folly tells us what it is and how it effects returns Disclosure ("none" means no position): Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books ...
How contango affects oil ETFs
FT Alphaville —
Hat tip to Abnormal Returns which draws attention to this oil post on Market Folly.com. The Market Folly piece highlights why retail investors should most definitely be interested in the forward oil curve, and specifically whether it is in contango or not. As the post explains, the performance of a fund like the US oil fund (USO) is largely dependent on three variables: 1) changes in the spot price of crude oil, 2) interest income on un-invested cash, and 3) the ‘roll yield’. While the first two are easily understood by the retail investor, the roll yield is more troubling. ...
Thursday morning links
The Mess That Greenspan Made —
... misses on 2Q profit - AP U.S. and UK on brink of debt disaster - Reuters MARKETS/INVESTING Oil Falls Before Report Expected to Show U.S. Stockpile Gain - Bloomberg Gold eases but physical buying supports - Reuters Worst Dow Drop Since Election Meant Rally in ’33 - Bloomberg Small investors shun big brokers to do it themselves - Reuters Gold to Gain Through 2012, Morgan Stanley Forecasts - Bloomberg How Contango Affects Crude Oil ETF's and ETN's (USO, OIL, DBO) - Bloomberg U.S. Dollar ...
Stock Market Video Analysis 2/13/09
AlphaTrends —
... What is CONTANGO and how does it affect Crude Oil ETF's? Very important to understand if you trade these ETFs. ...
Oil ETFs: What The Charts Are Saying About OIL And USO
Daily Markets —
... In the above chart, the blue line (on left scale) is the price of oil and the red line (on right scale) is the price of the OIL ETN. As the price rose last year, the ETN tended to over reach but came back in line as the price fell. Since the beginning of this year, the price of oil has increased while the ETN has lagged. The divergence has been explained as being due to “ contango “. “Contango” results from a step slop in futures contracts and describes a strategy of buying the underlying commodity at the current spot price and delivering it in the future at the higher futures ...
Positioning for Oil's Slide
EconomPic —
... But it isn't only my view on oil that has been the cause of my increased short position in USO (U.S. Oil Fund ETF) via puts. The additional reason is that USO performs poorly when there is contango in the oil market. As detailed in the USO prospectus via Market Folly: in the event of a crude oil futures market where near month contracts trade at a lower price than next month contracts, a situation described as ‘‘contango’’ in the futures market, then absent the impact of the overall ...
