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Readings: Chinese slowdown, Commercial paper, Double-touch options
GalaTime —
... Brad Setser: If you only read one thing on China this fall … ...
Further reading
FT Alphaville —
Elsewhere on Thursday, - The 20 worst years in US financial history - Big names, even bigger losses - For once the world is even stranger than Paul Krugman thought and stranger than his models. - If you’re only going to read one thing on China this season… - So what is going on with Berkshire Hathaway? - Keynes before Keynesianism - The seduction of municipal derivatives : JUST DON’T DO IT - A new look for private equity - A boldface liar - … Blodget’s shopping list - On faltering consumption - What’s a little bit of deflation ( if you’re Japanese )? - Trading systems: The problem with ...
Everything you wanted to know about China ...
Calculated Risk —
Brad Setser writes: If you only read one thing on China this fall ... Make sure it is the latest World Bank China Quarterly. David Dollar, Louis Kuijs and their colleagues have outdone themselves – and in the process provided a clear assessment of the sources of China’s current slowdown and the risks that lie ahead. I won’t try to summarize the entire report. Read it. The whole thing. No summary can do it justice. Brad does highlight a few keys points, including this: The last thing anyone needs to worry about is fall in ...
Facts about the Chinese slowdown
Marginal Revolution —
Why then is China slowing so sharply? Simple, real estate investment
has hit a wall. After growing at 20% y/y for a long time, real estate
investment stalled – with a y/y growth rate of around 0% (Figure 5).
That means that China is in turn producing more steel and cement than
it needs, and producers of steel and cement are cutting back. That in
turns hurts iron ore exporters…
This though is very much a result of China’s own policy choices. Rather
than allowing the real exchange rate to appreciate back when China was
truly booming (05-late 07/ early 08), China’s policy makers opted to
rely on administrative curbs on credit growth. That left China more
exposed to ...
Must-Read China Reading: World Bank Quarterly
Paul Kedrosky's Infectious Greed —
If you read one thing on China this week/month/quarter/season, let it be the new World Bank China Quarterly. Superbly useful stuff. Get it here. [via Brad Setser]
...
Friday morning links
The Mess That Greenspan Made —
TOP STORIES Japan industry: 'Unprecedented' decline - CNN/Money Retailers Offer Big Discounts, and Then Pray - NY Times Shares up as India market reopens - BBC 'Shadow ECB' calls for immediate and drastic rates cuts - Telegraph Property market detox quashes investor appetite - Reuters Top Chinese official warns on downturn - Financial Times Government bailout hits $8.5 trillion - SF Gate MARKETS/INVESTING Oil falls below $54 ahead of OPEC meeting - AP Gold little changed; traders eye OPEC meeting - Reuters ‘Structural deficit’ in gold supply could send ...
The China syndrome
FT Alphaville —
... . Writes Brad Setser: If you only read one thing on China this fall… Make sure it is the latest World Bank China Quarterly. David Dollar, Louis Kuijs and their colleagues have outdone themselves - and in the process provided a clear assessment of the sources of China’s current slowdown and the risks that lie ahead. China is the most important country to the US. As Setser notes: In broad terms - if oil stays at its current levels - China will be the only large surplus country in the world, and it will essentially be financing a US deficit of roughly equal magnitude ...
The Importance of China
The Baseline Scenario —
So, the global economy is falling apart, but not in the way people expected. Under the de facto arrangement sometimes known as “Bretton Woods II,” emerging market countries pegged (officially or unofficially) their currencies to developed world currencies at artificially low rates, having the effect of promoting exports and discouraging consumption by emerging market ...
Thoughts on Oil
Calculated Risk —
... about how China might cut back on buying dollar denominated assets as they try to stimulate their domestic economy. However Dr. Brad Setser has argued several times that he views this is unlikely, and he recently highlighted this report from David Dollar and Louis Kuijs ...
