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You're Unbelievable - Wile E. Bernanke
Technically Speaking, Market Analysis and Theory — ... year and a half, we have moved from the Fed's "contained" to a multi-trillion dollar capital infusion (on taxpayers' shoulders) that seems mostly to be limited only by our imagination. Business Week reports the lumber industry is threatened by the glut of unsold homes. Official unemployment continues an inexorable rise upward. ________________________________________________________ Less sanguine and more sobering are data from Shadow Government Stats. __________________________________________________________ ...

October's Unemployment Rate Rises to "6.5%"
Fund My Mutual Fund — ... Next let's take a look at our favorite chart from Shadowstats.com showing you the trend - let me explain the data points. This chart shows our government figures (today) versus how they would show if we used methodologies we used to use when we actually told the truth to our people. So as you see below the blue line is reality and shows a country struggling at elevated unemployment for a long time, but now it is spiking. The red line is what you are told and the mainstream media will talk about (U-3). The gray line is the ...

Awesome, Baby
Technically Speaking, Market Analysis and Theory — ... approach (oversold) ____________________________________________________________Here's a different approach, the 100 MUST sorted by lowest trending (ADX)...these are stocks that MIGHT be starting to form bases, most after serious damage. __________________________________________________________ An example would be Tesoro (TSO)...long TSO LEAP call spreads. __________________________________________________________John Williams' Shadow Government Stats with unemployment data that central planners don't love. ...

Implements and Architects
Technically Speaking, Market Analysis and Theory — ... Shadow Government Statistics provides the latest ALTERNATIVE economic statistics, kind of the stains on the economic reports minus the Oxy-clean treatment. ...

Snapshot in Time
Technically Speaking, Market Analysis and Theory — ... Job losses mounted and unemployment, far above the official government figures, exploded. John Williams' Shadow Government Stats reveals the sorry truth facing Americans. ...

Snail Fail: Apologists to the Rescue
Technically Speaking, Market Analysis and Theory — ... without raising the universal ire of the huddled masses. BOHICA. However, with almost 15 percent of the population with too much time on their hand via unemployment and underemployment, it's not so easy sneaking the sun past so many roosters. Can you trust the people who bombard you with bad data? Or the disingenuous who understate the scope of the problem through ignorance or malevolance?Now and futures brings you some CPI facts. John Williams stamps his numbers with authenticity. ...

Sunday Morning Coffee: House of Pain
Technically Speaking, Market Analysis and Theory — ... because we live in a society dominated by Keynesians, government intervention will just escalate and escalate. Warburton argued in his book "DEBT AND DELUSION" that rational individual behavior in these times is establishing LIQUIDITY and AVOIDING DEBT. The Keynesians want us to do the opposite, SPEND and ASSUME CREDIT. Reality is not central bankers with hedonic data and imagined 'control' of the economy. Here is the reality presented by John Williams' Shadow Government Statistics. ____________________________________________________ This is where ...

Real March Unemployment Reaches 12.5%
Fund My Mutual Fund — ... Let's go on to our normal nitty gritty - let's begin with the data from Shadowstats.com showing you the trend - let me explain the data points. This chart shows our government figures (today) versus how they would show if we used methodologies we used to use when we actually told the truth to our people. You might ask how I got to 12.5% when the official number is 8.5%? ...

Off a Cliff with No Airbags: The FED Banking System Quivers in Fright
GoldSeek.com — ... | Source: GoldSeek.com EVERYTOWN, USA - All over the United States last week, over-taxation "Tea Parties" protests broke out, rightly directed at Congress. Many Americans found themselves protesting on the streets and fields of their nation for the first time. This occurred despite the massive smokescreen put in place by the corporate mainstream media and Bureau of Labor and Statistics. Actual unemployment has hit 19%, not 8.5%. The ...

STATUS REPORT: Ron Paul's Audit the FED Act, HR 1207
GoldSeek.com — ... about Paul, HR 1207, and committee politics - while boldly proclaimed that there is no inflation . [image] It is my guess that Campaign for Liberty and Ron Paul will take their time to have their supporters keep banging away on their local representatives to rachet the number of co-sponsors higher. Over 150 would be impressive, to say the least. At this point, ...

On Borrowed Time
Daily Markets — ... of the workforce, or an alternate method of reckoning that counts discouraged workers puts at 20 percent. Some of the Feds’ hiring increases have been stunning. If you look at the four-year period from 2006 to 2010, the number of Homeland Security employees has grown by 22 percent, the Justice Department has increased by 15 percent, and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission can claim 25 percent more employees. (These figures assume that Congress adopts Mr. Obama’s 2010 budget without significant changes.) A 39-page “dimensions” ...

Real May Unemployment Rate Reaches 13.4%
Fund My Mutual Fund — ... have been made to record keeping methodology - which skew the numbers higher than how they were reported before that time frame. So comparing numbers in the 90s / 00s to the 70s / 80s is not apples to apples. The closest approximation I can get to the old methodology is adding the "reported" rate (9.4% this month) to the delta between the broadest rate (U-6) and the "people who have been explained away over the years by government jiggering of report". This can be seen in the chart below (the difference between the blue and gray lines) and has been about 4% the ...

Five Things: "Real" Economic Data and Market Separation
Minyanville — ... a nearly identical drop in the rate of inflation to the government's CPI, while the government's CPI is right now showing outright deflation. Of course, as I've argued here, the critical thing to understand about this deflationary debt unwind is not nominal prices, but how the attempt to inflate the money supply has, for now, been unsuccessful. So, while "real" inflation remains evident in nominal prices, even as the rate has plummeted... (All charts below courtesy of John Williams' Shadow Government Statistics website.) [image] Money supply growth has not been up to the ...

Inflation and Deflation - Both Is Right and Wrong at the Same Time
The Prudent Investor —

Unlocking the Money Matrix - The Real Interest Rate (PART 12/15)
GoldSeek.com — ... means is - back to Mises' definition - that goods and services in the present are preferred to goods and services in the future. Above all else, a negative real interest rate signifies America's savings and capital is being destroyed. The State is responsible for the capital destruction of our society. This explains why our best jobs and factories have been driven and outsourced overseas - and why most consumer goods are from China. This is why we are living in a Depression and unemployment is at 20% - you didn't really believe the government unemployment figures of 9%... ...

"The Wreck of the Hesperus" and the Meltdown of the Global Monetary System
GoldSeek.com — ... prices are inflating at a +6% rate. They say unemployment is 10%, or 9.6% like it's some kind of going-out-of-business sale, when the truth is it's at depression levels of 21%. Of course their prime fear is a psychological realization of these facts by the population at large. Some have even told me that my writing is a disservice, as if the charade could be maintained forever. The fact remains, it cannot. ...

Sunday Morning Coffee: Legerdemania?
Technically Speaking, Market Analysis and Theory — ... expiration or fail at support?Daily charts from left: Bank index, Bank of America, HSBC _________________________________________________________________ SPDR Housing (XHB)...daily. Why the obsession with the housing market amidst unemployment in the stratosphere, high inventory, and nothing in the universe to suggest that housing will be a leader in the next recovery? __________________________________________________________John Williams' Shadow Government Stats...does this look like green shoots or white lies? ...

Minimum Wage Hike Could Lead To Job Losses
Breaking News: CBS News — ... , "the theoretical case that (employers) respond in ways unfavorable to low-skilled employees is too powerful to dismiss." Let's assume for the sake of argument that's true. Going back to our original Econwatch question, this implies that politicians who might be only mildly worried about increasing unemployment rates during an economic boom should be much more worried about job losses in a recession. (Shadowstats.com's alternate way of calculating unemployment, using the earlier methodology that counts discouraged workers, puts the rate at around 20 percent.) No wonder ...

The Pennant Chase!
Minyanville — ... to corporate America (credit issuance seems to confirm a clean pass) who will, in turn, stuff it into the clamoring hands of the consumer. That s the plan but as it stands, the cumulative effects of the crisis continue to weigh on the anchor leg. Take a step back and think about it for a moment, sans emotion and void of any performance anxiety you may be feeling. Total debt-to-GDP is hovering around 390%, which are pre-crisis levels. One of five Americans is out of work, according to respected alternative calculations . Capacity remains in residential housing, commercial real ...

Lecture - Why the Stimulus Plan Will Fail (and a Better Alternative)
GoldSeek.com — ... the figures are useless. [image] Now let's look at today. The government per BLS.gov use the figure of 9.8%, 9.9% in the papers today (the U-3 rate) like it is some kind of going out of business sale, but in fact a better representation of the unemployment rate is the U-6 figure, which is around 16%. However, even this number is falsified by practices such as dropping out discouraged workers after they have unsuccessfully been unemployed for X months. Therefore the estimates from ShadowStats.com are probably more accurate, which is at a whopping, but more realistic, 21% ...

The Sum Total Of All That Is Wrong With The Economy & The Financial System
Daily Markets — ... Chronic unemployment, possibly much higher than officially reported. See: Alternate Data at ShadowStats . More than $500 Billion USD in hedge funds that have borrowed short and lent long. See: ...

Separating the real, the financial, and the sentimental
SCSUScholars — ... You can see the most weighted value in there is movement of (real or inflation adjusted) M2. But that weighting is meant to adjust the volatility of each measure. Because M2 doesn't have that great a volatility, it gets a higher weight. You can see, it's not a highly volatile graph. M2 growth has slowed but, because CPI turned negative real M2 is rising.(see alternative measures from ShadowStats for some caution on this figure.) ...