econbrowser.com - 3/5/2009
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The exchange between Brad Delong and Greg Mankiw ( [1] [2] , followed up by [3] [4] ) reminded me of some earlier work Iqd done with Yin-Wong Cheung on the time series properties of real GDP, back in the "unit root" wars. Briefly, Mankiw was alluding to work with Campbell indicating GDP was ...
optionarmageddon.ml-implode.com - 3/13/2009
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optionarmageddon.ml-implode.com —
From the Fed’s Flow of Funds report released
today.* (Click charts to enlarge) To put data from...
the chart above in context, the one below compares total debt to GDP. I’m using annual data here, so the increase at the end of 2008 ...
(more)
Updated Debt Stats
macroblog.typepad.com - 3/7/2009
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macroblog.typepad.com —
When smart people debate, something interesting is bound
to come of it, so I have been reading...
an interchange over the past couple of days in the blogs of Greg Mankiw and Paul Krugman . Krugman's blog provides the necessary background on the source ...
(more)
Dueling forecasts
calculatedriskblog.com - 3/11/2009
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calculatedriskblog.com —
It seems like the "D" word is everywhere.
And that raises a question: what is a depression?...
Although there is no formal definition, most economists agree it is a prolonged slump with a 10% or more decline in real GDP. Yesterday I heard an analyst say ...
(more)
What is a depression?
Comments
Blog Reactions
links for 2009-03-05
Economist's View —
FDIC Insurance Fund May Run Dry This Year - naked capitalism
The Prospects for a Growth Bounceback - Econbrowser
A “deal” mentality is bad macroeconomics - voxeu.org
If You’re a Defense Lobbyist, It Might Be Time to Panic - Ackerman
Recession Widespread And Growing, Fed Says - washingtonpost.com
Recession and recovery, Krugman and Mankiw... - Knowing and Making
Why not just reduce the principal? - Richard Green
Cash-in-advance ...
Barely making the Grade
Lawrance G. Lux —
... I found something for the hopelessly Wonkish by Menzie Chinn. Univariate v. bivariate arguments will always surrender in the final analysis to Unknowns (specifically what is the impact of Demand Shocks, whether they are causal or respondent). I would like to believe in Brad DeLong’s assessment that sharper increases in unemployment presage more rapid GDP growth, but will state that without a decrease in relative Pricing with that increase, GDP will trend to previous levels. I know that constant trend rates in GDP depend far more on Inflationary pressures, than on a ...
Trend Stationarity/Difference Stationarity over the (Very) Long Run
J. Bradford DeLong's Grasping Reality with All Eight Tentacles —
... Here is a very long run (1967-2008) extension of my 1967-2008 quarterly analysis covered in this post. Figure 1: Log real U.S. GDP, 1867-2000, in billions 2000$. Source: GDP from Johnston and Williamson, and ...
Related Content
Good News and Bad News from the GDP release
econbrowser.com 8/1/2009 — Some additional observations (see Jim Hamilton's take , as well as others ) on the GDP release: (1) the five year revision indicates that GDP was larger than we thought, but it also declined faster in 2009Q1; (2) GDP growth was lower throughout 2008 ...
Good economic news?
econbrowser.com 4/30/2009 — Today's GDP numbers were about what I was expecting. Although economic activity continued its sharp decline, if we continue to follow the script, things should improve.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today that U.S. real GDP fell at a ...
U.S. GDP
measuringworth.org 3/14/2009 — Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country during a given time period. There are two ways to measure GDP: Nominal GDP is the dollar value of production at current-year prices. For ...
Guest post: Economic recovery and the perverse math of GDP reporting
nakedcapitalism.com 5/8/2009 —
Submitted by Edward Harrison of the site Credit Writedowns Now that everyone is talking about greens hoots and the potential for economic recovery, I thought I would run through the statistics of U.S. GDP with you. The reason I am bringing ...
A V-shaped recession?
econbrowser.com 7/2/2009 — As James Morley has pointed out, often a sharp economic downturn is followed by an equally sharp economic recovery. One reason for that is the liquidation of inventories that accompanies any recession and restocking that takes place in recovery. What ...
The financial return on energy invested
europe.theoildrum.com 6/23/2009 —
Global GDP data from the USDA. Primary energy data and energy prices from the BP statistical reveiw of world energy 2009.
Global GDP has grown steadily and continuously since WWII, in step with a growing global population and primary energy ...
Been down so long it looks like up
econbrowser.com 7/31/2009 — The Commerce Department reported today that the seasonally adjusted real value of the nation's production of goods and services fell at a 1% annual rate during the second quarter. That's about as bad as things ever got during the recession of 2001. ...
Preliminary Analysis of the President’s Budget
cboblog.cbo.gov 3/21/2009 — We have just released our latest projections for the budget and economic outlook, updating the projections published in early January 2009. In addition, we have reviewed the President’s budgetary proposals contained in the February publication A New ...
What will recovery look like?
econbrowser.com 3/15/2009 — When good news comes, what should we expect to see?
The graph below plots the quarterly percentage change (at an annual rate) for real GDP and some of its key components since 1947. Calculated Risk has noted that the typical recession pattern is ...
On Revisions and on Conditioning
econbrowser.com 11/1/2009 — Both have to be "handled with care".
Revisions
We're all tempted to make predictions on the basis of the last data point. And even more difficult to resist is the temptation to make definitive statements on the basis of data that are sure to ...
Lost Decade? We Just Had One —
The Big Money 3/2/2009
" ‘Jesus,' he said to himself. ‘Drunk for ten years.' " — F. Scott Fitzgerald, "The Lost Decade"
For months, the "lost decade" meme has been wending its way through blog posts , economics journals , cable news shows , and newspaper think ...
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