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econbrowser.com - 7/9/2009

Back where we started

— econbrowser.com — BLS reported that the total number of Americans employed in June on nonfarm payrolls came to 131.7... million workers on a seasonally adjusted basis. That's below the June 2000 figure of 131.8 million with which we started the decade. Source:  ... (more) Back where we started

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Employment Downturn

Comments vote downundo vote up J. Bradford DeLong's Grasping Reality with All Eight ... found this 7/9/2009found this

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Dumb Comments On Energy Prices And Manipulation
Daily Markets — ... :  Introductory Econ classes start with how markets clear, showing a supply function (a curve) and a demand function (also a curve).  The markets clear at the intersection of the two curves.  A lecture or two later there is a discussion of elasticity — how much demand (or supply) changes with a unit change in price.  There are examples of inelastic demand (insulin is a favorite) and more responsive demand. The Conclusion: It is not proportional or linear.  It is another case of pop economics intuition leading one astray.  Let us suppose that the oil market is near a tipping ...

The US Employment Report And The Birth/Death Adjustment
Daily Markets — ... we showed that the estimation of job creation was not just the Birth/Death adjustment.  In fact, that is only about 10 or 15 percent of the estimation of new businesses.  Most of it comes from the imputation of business births from business deaths.  This process, the imputation step, is “concealed” within the sample, so to speak.  It captures the cyclical element of the economy very effectively. In Part Two of our series we noted that most observers seem unaware that there is always significant new job creation, even in recessions.  This job creation is on the order of 100K ...

Links for 2009-08-10
Econbrowser — I spent the last week of July as a visiting scholar at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, home to Macroblog and a number of superb economists. Their Center for Quantitative Economic Research is now going to be reporting my GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index, as you'll see from following the link. Jeff Miller has been looking carefully into the BLS birth-death adjustments ( [1], [2], [3]). And I was interested in this story from the Wall Street Journal: Houston-based Apache Corp. [APA] has ...