mindhacks.com - 9/28/2009
—
There is a cliché in media stories where figures for a disease or condition are quoted followed by a statement that "the true figures may be higher". Sampling errors mean that initial figures are equally as likely to be under-estimates as over-estimates but we only ever seem to be told that the ...
nytimes.com - 10/4/2009
—
nytimes.com —
When the United States economy fell into recession
at the beginning of 2008, many economists, including those...
at the Federal Reserve, refused to believe it was happening. They pointed to the employment numbers, which showed only mild job losses for ...
(more)
The Jobs News Gets Worse
Comments
Blog Reactions
No results found for “true number may be lower or higher”
Knowledge Problem —
... Michael Giberson
The true number of hits for the “true number may be higher” are lower than reported.
Mind Hacks (via Cheap Talk and Marginal Revolution) points out news reports often stress when stating an estimated value that the “true number may be higher,” but infrequently that the “true number may be lower.” The primary evidence cited is a comparison of Google search results for the two phrases, with “higher” shown at 20,300 hits and ...
The Observer Effect and Using Google for Social Science
Coyote Blog —
I thought this was an interesting quick and dirty social study using Google. (via Knowledge Problem)
For any individual study you can validly say that you think the estimate is too low, or indeed, too high, and give reasons for that. For instance, you might say that your sample was mainly young people who tend to be healthier than the general public, or maybe that the diagnostic tools are known to miss some true cases.
But when we look at reporting as a whole, it almost always says the condition is likely to be much more common than the ...
Related Content
Video: From Bad to Worse...
marketnewslive.blogspot.com 2/24/2009 — 02/24/09 Economists project the economy will get worse this year than thought as consumer spending declines.
The Worse, The Better
bespokeinvest.typepad.com 8/5/2009 — Just like the market's rally off the March lows, the S&P; 500's most recent leg higher has been led by lower quality stocks. In the table and chart below, we compared S&P;'s long-term credit rating of S&P; 500 companies to the performance of their ...
Obama on the economy - worse before better
themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com 12/8/2008 — From earlier today on Meet the Press. Oddly, the President-elect says we are not "going to be able to just keep printing money " and that the nation will have to be more fiscally responsible. Now, that really would be change you can believe in.
"This deal's getting worse all the time."
dealbreaker.com 11/11/2008 — Liddy: "Paulson, take the $60 billion in 5 year L+300 bonds and $40 billion in preferred shares and put them in my account."
Paulson: "You said it was $85 billion in 2 year, L+850 bonds!"
Liddy: "I am altering the deal. Pray I don't alter it ...
"Could Be A Lot Worse. WAS A Lot Worse in 1980s." (US Economy)
blogger.com 1/21/2009 — The real U.S. economy has generally been ignored, including an "overabundance" of real assets and goods, that raised household living standards at a steeper rate, substantially greater efficiencies of firms, in producing more output with fewer inputs, ...
The worse the US does, the better the dollar does …
blogs.cfr.org 10/5/2008 — The dollar hasn’t fallen along with the US stocks, US Treasury yields or US employment. There is now a broad consensus that the US is currently in a recession, something that might be expected to lead to a fall in the dollar.
But the dollar, ...
Follow WallStreetBlips on Twitter
