econbrowser.com - 8/9/2009
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Some are greeting Friday's employment report as an all-clear signal. But my advice is, keep your helmet on-- they're still shooting real bullets out there.
Let's start with the good news. I first called attention to the favorable turn in new claims for unemployment insurance on April 9 , ...
oldprof.typepad.com - 8/7/2009
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oldprof.typepad.com —
Nearly everyone interested in the markets pays special
attention to the monthly employment situation report. Briefing.com gives...
it the highest rating for importance. CNBC commentators todaysaid that everyone was breathless, waiting for the ...
(more)
The Employment Report and the Birth/Death Adjustment
krugman.blogs.nytimes.com - 8/4/2009
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krugman.blogs.nytimes.com —
A slight followup on my last post. The
BLS conveniently provides a map of state unemployment rates...
across the country, which is worth looking at: What you see, if you look at the black states - states with 10+ percent unemployment - are two great ...
(more)
Black states
calculatedriskblog.com - 8/7/2009
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calculatedriskblog.com —
Note: earlier Employment post: Employment Report: 247K Jobs
Lost, 9.4% Unemployment Rate . The earlier post includes...
a comparison to previous recessions. Stress Test Scenarios Click on graph for larger image in new window. This graph shows the ...
(more)
Unemployment: Stress Tests, Unemployed over 26 Weeks, ...
Comments
Blog Reactions
Sunday links: data mining disasters
Abnormal Returns —
... “So party if you feel like it. The popular meme that the recession is now over could ultimately prove to be correct. But it’s by no means guaranteed.” (Econbrowser) ...
links for 2009-08-10
Economist's View —
... It's not over yet - Econbrowser
Money and debt - Nick Rowe
Economists on the Defensive--Robert Lucas - Richard A. Posner
Clark Predicts “Economic Redundany” of Working Class - Will ...
Monday morning links
The Mess That Greenspan Made —
... MARKETS/INVESTING Oil hovers below $71 as investors eye US consumers - AP The Stock Market and Monetary Disorder - Noland, Prudent Bear ‘Enough oil to keep the crude culture going’ - Dawn.com Hold or Fold, but Don’t Waver - NY Times Bond ETFs draw interest - MarketWatch Post-Crash Dynamics - Hussman Funds ECONOMY It's not over yet - EconBrowser Economic Bottom Calls: Willful Ignorance - Market Ticker Payrolls not so bullish after all, Rosenberg says - FT ...
My Economic Forecast
EconLog: Library of Economics and Liberty —
... the ability to increase employment in this country by stimulating demand for consumer durables is not what it used to be. ...I expect that growth in real GDP will pick up strongly over the next year, as pent-up demand for new household formation and durable goods purchases produces a strong rebound. However, for reasons given above, employment growth will be sluggish while inflation pressures will slowly build. We'll see. If I were you, I would give more weight to the views of Jim Hamilton than to mine.
More cold water for Friday's labor report
The Mess That Greenspan Made —
One of my favorite economists (a group that could probably be counted on one hand), James Hamilton of the University of San Diego, takes a look at last Friday's labor market data and comes away unimpressed. ...
Achuthan: “that error of pessimism”
InvivoAnalytics.com —
... , yet a couple hundred miles north, the mall was full (of kids buying disposable clothing, reminding me of the Hong Kong of my childhood). Let me know what’s happening in your part of the world. MORE: James Hamilton: It’s not over yet Questions and Comments Please ...
Revisiting employment indicators for signs of recovery
naked capitalism —
... I mention this because James Hamilton over at Econbrowser has a nice post up called “It's not over yet” which dovetails nicely with the themes in my May post. In May, I ended the post saying: ...
Don't get too excited
SCSUScholars —
... James Hamilton reminds us of what President Obama said last week, "As far as I'm concerned, we will not have a true recovery as long as we're losing jobs." The President is right; the Fed may want to think more about this. ...
Related Content
Employment Report Preview
oldprof.typepad.com 8/7/2009 — Each month we ask the question, "What change in payroll employment
would be consistent with other economic data from the same time period
(the middle of the prior month)? This is not a forecast, per se ,
since we do not posit any causal relationship ...
Time to Remove the "L" from "BLS"
globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com 4/4/2009 — For seven consecutive months the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has revised downward, prior job loss data. The New York Times mentioned this on March 6 in Will Job Numbers Keep Being Revised Down? Robert Barbera, the chief economist of ITG, points ...
Intuition and Economics
oldprof.typepad.com 7/10/2009 — (This is the second installment of our series describing how the BLS might respond to critics of the Birth/Death adjustment. See Part One here. ) Everyone uses intuition, making decisions that seem instinctive rather than the result of a carefully ...
Forecasting the Jobs Report
oldprof.typepad.com 6/5/2009 — MarketWatch tells us that today's selling was concern about the labor market and the resulting economic contribution of consumers. We sympathize with journalists who need a daily lead to explain modest market moves. We are amazed that market ...
Import/Export Price Indexes (MXP)
bls.gov 10/11/2008 — Contacts Technical Assistance: Media Contact: Regional Office Assistance: Information about the Import/Export Price Indexes and other BLS data may be obtained from any of the eight BLS Regional Economic Analysis and Information offices . Fax on ...
Jobs Contract 19th Straight Month; Unemployment Rate Inches Lower to 9.4%
globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com 8/13/2009 — This morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the July Employment Report . Nonfarm payroll employment continued to decline in July (-247,000), and the unemployment rate was little changed at 9.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor ...
Critics of the BLS Birth/Death Adjustment Proven Wrong
oldprof.typepad.com 10/5/2008 — The actual job count is in . It shows whether the much-maligned birth/death adjustment improved the monthly job count, as the expert BLS team contended, or whether they government was creating "fictional jobs" as maintained by the many ...
Unemployment: Stress Tests, Unemployed over 26 Weeks, Diffusion Index
calculatedriskblog.com 9/4/2009 — Note: earlier Employment post: Employment Report: 216K Jobs Lost, 9.7% Unemployment Rate . The earlier post includes a comparison to previous recessions. Stress Test Scenarios Click on graph for larger image in new window. This graph shows the ...
A very weak employment report
econbrowser.com 11/9/2008 — More bad economic news arrived today from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The BLS reported that the unemployment rate has gone up by 1-1/2 percentage points in the last six months, with 6.5% of the labor force now reporting themselves to be ...
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