econbrowser.com - 12/2/2008
—
The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research announced today that the eleventh U.S. postwar recession began in December of 2007.
As has often been the case historically, the announcement itself is a bit anticlimactic, in that pretty much everybody had ...
econbrowser.com - 12/2/2008
—
econbrowser.com —
The typical Econbrowser reader might not be surprised
at the NBER decision -- but some others will....
From a May 2008 WSJ article: "The data are pretty clear that we are not in a recession," Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Edward Lazear told a ...
(more)
Recession Dating: Some People Are Going to Be Surprised
bloomberg.com - 12/1/2008
—
bloomberg.com —
Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy entered
a recession a year ago this month, the panel...
that dates American business expansions said today. The declaration was made by the cycle-dating committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research, a ...
(more)
Recession in U.S. Started in December 2007, NBER Says ...
econbrowser.com - 11/26/2008
—
econbrowser.com —
The OECD has just released its forecasts. This
follows the recent updated IMF forecasts. Growth is evaporating...
the industrial countries. What is to be done? Figure 1: From visualization of OECD Economic Outlook 84 [link] . Blue is negative ...
(more)
Synchronized Recession, Synchronized Stimulus?
Comments
Blog Reactions
links for 2008-12-02
Economist's View —
... bank solvency - Nick Rowe
Where I Was Wrong About The Current Economic Crisis - Barkley Rosser
The Great Crash of 2008 - Robert Reich
Fiscal Policy Puzzles - Greg Mankiw
Dow plunges again, Friedman fans despair - Andrew Leonard
Paulson's Remarks on the U.S. Economy - Real Time Economics
Cost and Benefits from a Fiscal Stimulus - pgl
It's official - Econbrowser
It's official: We're in a recession - How the World ...
Tuesday links: crossover calls
Abnormal Returns —
... and acquisitions activity in 2009. (Economist.com)
“Citigroup and other firms need to find ways to keep and attract talented people who can make smart decisions, without lavishing pay on them or rewarding them for shoddy performance.” (NYTimes.com also Market Movers)
Recession calls are not trivial matters. (Econbrowser, ibid, Economist’s View, Infectious Greed ...
Income versus output
SCSUScholars —
... Jim Hamilton notes that the monthly measures that the BCDC uses instead have been shouting recession for awhile. This includes real personal income less transfers which BCDC says "places the data closer to the desired measure, real gross domestic income." ...
Related Content
Guest post: Economic recovery and the perverse math of GDP reporting
nakedcapitalism.com 5/8/2009 —
Submitted by Edward Harrison of the site Credit Writedowns Now that everyone is talking about greens hoots and the potential for economic recovery, I thought I would run through the statistics of U.S. GDP with you. The reason I am bringing ...
Good News and Bad News from the GDP release
econbrowser.com 8/1/2009 — Some additional observations (see Jim Hamilton's take , as well as others ) on the GDP release: (1) the five year revision indicates that GDP was larger than we thought, but it also declined faster in 2009Q1; (2) GDP growth was lower throughout 2008 ...
When Did the Recession Begin?
crossingwallstreet.com 11/12/2008 — The common media definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. Technically, that’s not correct. For example, at the beginning of this decade, we never had two straight quarter of falling GDP, but it certainly felt like ...
Been down so long it looks like up
econbrowser.com 7/31/2009 — The Commerce Department reported today that the seasonally adjusted real value of the nation's production of goods and services fell at a 1% annual rate during the second quarter. That's about as bad as things ever got during the recession of 2001. ...
The oil shock and recession of 2008: Part 2
econbrowser.com 1/3/2009 — In my previous post , I presented evidence that the oil price increase over 2007:H2-2008:H1 made a significant contribution to the slowdown in consumption spending in general and decline in spending on domestic automobiles in particular. Here I ...
Good economic news?
econbrowser.com 4/30/2009 — Today's GDP numbers were about what I was expecting. Although economic activity continued its sharp decline, if we continue to follow the script, things should improve.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today that U.S. real GDP fell at a ...
On Revisions and on Conditioning
econbrowser.com 11/1/2009 — Both have to be "handled with care".
Revisions
We're all tempted to make predictions on the basis of the last data point. And even more difficult to resist is the temptation to make definitive statements on the basis of data that are sure to ...
What will recovery look like?
econbrowser.com 3/15/2009 — When good news comes, what should we expect to see?
The graph below plots the quarterly percentage change (at an annual rate) for real GDP and some of its key components since 1947. Calculated Risk has noted that the typical recession pattern is ...
A V-shaped recession?
econbrowser.com 7/2/2009 — As James Morley has pointed out, often a sharp economic downturn is followed by an equally sharp economic recovery. One reason for that is the liquidation of inventories that accompanies any recession and restocking that takes place in recovery. What ...
Real GDP fell slightly in 2008:Q3
econbrowser.com 10/31/2008 — The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today that U.S. real GDP fell at a 0.3% annual rate in the third quarter of 2008. That's the second quarter of negative real GDP growth out of the last four, and puts the cumulative annual growth since 2007:Q3 ...
Embracing Recession —
The Big Money 12/2/2008
It's official: The U.S. economy has been in recession since last December , according to new figures from the National Bureau of Economic Research.
read more
Follow WallStreetBlips on Twitter
