market-ticker.denninger.net - 7/3/2009
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It doesn't seem possible that six months have passed under the bridge of time in 2009 yet, does it? Yet they have.
Let's take a look at the scorecard first from my 2009 Prediction Ticker , remembering of course that I have six months left!
The economy will not recover in 2009 . ...
econbrowser.com - 7/2/2009
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econbrowser.com —
As James Morley has pointed out, often a
sharp economic downturn is followed by an equally sharp
economic recovery. One reason for that is the liquidation of inventories that accompanies any recession and restocking that takes place in recovery. What ...
(more)
A V-shaped recession?
voxeu.org - 7/3/2009
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voxeu.org —
Caroline Freund , 3 July 2009 The collapse
in trade has been unprecedentedly severe. This column examines
potential explanations. While the global fragmentation of production has increased the responsiveness of trade flows to drops in demand, trade ...
(more)
Explaining the trade collapse
econbrowser.com - 7/6/2009
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econbrowser.com —
Just how much has the U.S. government promised
to pay? Total public debt outstanding of the U.S.
Federal Government is currently $11,490 billion, or $124,000 per taxpayer . But a fair chunk of that total public debt-- $4,350 B to be exact-- is ...
(more)
Off-balance-sheet federal liabilities
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Worst Case
Bear Mountain Bull —
Karl Denninger has never been accused of wearing rose-colored glasses. But at the rate we’re going, it’s hard to argue with his take on where things could end up : This story is by no means finished. The government has spent $2 trillion it does not have and has committed to nearly $6 trillion more in either guarantees or outright payments, and yet capacity utilization continues to drop, employees continue to be laid off, consumption continues to fall and frantic attempts to pay down debt and avoid default continue to rise. In response the economy has continued to shrink and ...
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The financial return on energy invested
europe.theoildrum.com 6/23/2009 —
Global GDP data from the USDA. Primary energy data and energy prices from the BP statistical reveiw of world energy 2009.
Global GDP has grown steadily and continuously since WWII, in step with a growing global population and primary energy ...
Where We Are, Where We're Heading (2009)
market-ticker.denninger.net 1/1/2009 —
Let's score the 2008 edition predictions first: US will enter a recession : Confirmed by NBER. Check. Unemployment will rise north of 5% . Check (bigtime) Housing will not turn in 2008. Major check. The story in 2008 will be ...
Good economic news?
econbrowser.com 4/30/2009 — Today's GDP numbers were about what I was expecting. Although economic activity continued its sharp decline, if we continue to follow the script, things should improve.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today that U.S. real GDP fell at a ...
China’s Magic Numbers
thebigmoney.com 7/19/2009 — BEIJING-China, on Thursday, announced its second-quarter gross domestic product-a big deal here. It's not just the Chinese government's top priority but a nearly sacrosanct number. Growth came in at an astounding 7.9 percent. But could China's GDP ...
U.S. GDP
measuringworth.org 3/14/2009 — Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country during a given time period. There are two ways to measure GDP: Nominal GDP is the dollar value of production at current-year prices. For ...
Preliminary Analysis of the President’s Budget
cboblog.cbo.gov 3/21/2009 — We have just released our latest projections for the budget and economic outlook, updating the projections published in early January 2009. In addition, we have reviewed the President’s budgetary proposals contained in the February publication A New ...
Good News and Bad News from the GDP release
econbrowser.com 8/1/2009 — Some additional observations (see Jim Hamilton's take , as well as others ) on the GDP release: (1) the five year revision indicates that GDP was larger than we thought, but it also declined faster in 2009Q1; (2) GDP growth was lower throughout 2008 ...
Slovakia Takes The Biscuit - GDP Drops 11.2% In Three Months
fistfulofeuros.net 5/17/2009 — I’ve been trying to draw attention to what is happening to Slovakian GDP for some months now, since I felt the consensus has been missing something (see this post , and this one ). The Economist, for example, has been arguing some sort of version of Baltic and Hungarian exceptionalism in ...
Some issues with GDP
tvhe.co.nz 6/3/2009 — Recently Peter Cresswell from Not PC asked me if I understood the difference between production and consumption . I know that consumption is what we value and I know that production is what we do in order to achieve consumption. As a result, I see production as a means to an end - the costly ...
Slovakia Takes The Biscuit - GDP Drops 11.2% In Three Months
globaleconomydoesmatter.blogspot.com 5/17/2009 — by Edward Hugh: Barcelona I've been trying to draw attention to what is happening to Slovakian GDP for some months now, since I felt the consensus has been missing something (see this post , and this one ). The Economist, for example, has been arguing some sort of version of Baltic and ...