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Nassim Taleb on Charlie Rose; Credit Default Swaps on US Jumping
Fund My Mutual Fund — Black chips win today, market down 2.5% from 3 PM to 4 PM. Need to adjust strategy it appears for the 3 PM Long-Short Hedge fund: whatever direction the market is going at 3 PM it will go 2-4x that direction in the last hour. I'd love to see a list of which hedgies are running and gunning these ETFs post 3 PM but apparently the SEC is not quite so intellectually curious. ...

Nassim Taleb on Charlie Rose
Paul Kedrosky's Infectious Greed — My friend Nassim Taleb was on the Charlie Rose show today. As always, highly worth viewing –- even if I’m admittedly biased, of course. [via 1440WallStreet]

Readings: Mexican bust, Russian grain & oil, Taleb on economics
GalaTime — Forbes: The Next Disaster - Mexico The explosion of narco terror comes alongside a precipitous drop in oil prices and the crushing effects of a deep U.S. recession. The climate of fear is kicking the life out of the economy. The second wave of the global financial crisis is playing out in the developing world–and right on our doorstep. After expanding by 3.2% in 2007 to $900 billion, Mexico’s GDP growth will slow to 1.5% this year and tumble to somewhere between zero and 0.7% in 2009. In November Fitch put Mexican government foreign and local currency debt on “negative outlook” (though the ratings ...

Nassim Taleb (Black Swan): Nouriel Roubini an "Optimist"
[ The Financial Ninja ] — Charlie Rose interviews Nassim Taleb, author of the Black Swan. Taleb calls Nouriel Roubini (who correctly called this economic and financial crisis) an 'optimist'. Rose has a mild heart attack, and is stunned into brief silence. Helluva an interview. (Helluva a book.) ...

The Black Swans Have Yet To Come Home To Roost . . .
Silicon Valley Watcher - conversations and observations at the intersection of technology and media — The current economic crisis has yet to make itself felt in all of its fury. One of the most sensible commentators is Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a former "quant" on Wall Street. I've been recomending his book "The Black Swan" for more than a year. Here is a very recent interview with the author on Charlie Rose, note: it is not for the feint of heart! One piece of silver lining is that Mr Taleb recommends a portfolio balance in safe cash/bonds and only 10 to 20 per cent in high risk investments because the "medium risk investments" have hidden risks. That could be good for venture funds. Somebody should start a Black Swan Fund. Here is Mr Taleb's web site: ...