content.ksg.harvard.edu - 10/31/2008
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Is the United States in recession? If one looked solely at the adverse shocks that have hit the economy over the last year, one would infer an unusually high probability of a recession. If one consulted some of the most import economic measures over the last year, one would say the ...
ft.com - 10/30/2008
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ft.com —
Evidence that the US is in recession grew
on Thursday as data showed that a sharp cutback...
in consumer spending in the third quarter resulted in the economy shrinking at an annualised rate of 0.3 per cent, its weakest performance in seven years. ...
(more)
FT.com / In depth - Consumer data raise recession fears ...
crossingwallstreet.com - 11/3/2008
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crossingwallstreet.com —
This will be the first time Americans will
be voting for president during a recession in 48...
years. The National Bureau of Economic Research hasn’t officially declared this a recession, but I’m assuming they’re mark the beginning of this current ...
(more)
Voting During a Recession
bloomberg.com - 11/7/2008
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bloomberg.com —
NBER's Hall Sees `Conclusive' Evidence of Recession (Update1)
By Steve Matthews Nov. 7 (Bloomberg) -- The head...
of the panel that officially dates U.S. economic cycles said there's no doubt now that a recession is under way following a surge in the ...
(more)
NBER's Hall Sees `Conclusive' Evidence of ...
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Blog Reactions
Some Additional Observations on the 2008Q3 Advance GDP Release
Econbrowser —
... If you went no further than noticing that the q/q annualized growth rate of -0.3% was faster than the -0.5 in the Bloomberg consensus, you might have taken this as good news. I'm not going to say it wasn't good news (relatively speaking), although negative growth makes the case for recession pretty good according to Jeff Frankel (who is on the ...
links for 2008-10-31
Economist's View —
Mortgage Plan May Aid Many and Irk Others - NYTimes.com
Ten things you don’t know about black holes - Discover Magazine
A Last Push To Deregulate - washingtonpost.com
Cost of resolving the crisis: Lessons from 35 years of crises - Vox EU
Amid the turmoil, do not forget the poor - FT
NOW Are We In Recession? - Jeff Frankel
Holtz-Eakin on the Latest GDP News Release - pgl
Decomposing the Yield Curve Spread - Macro and Other Market ...
NOW Are We In Recession?
The Big Picture —
... We are very pleased to publish Professor Frankel’s comments on the economy. ...
Tuesday morning links
The Mess That Greenspan Made —
TOP STORIES Citigroup to help at-risk borrowers stay in homes - AP Obama Asks Bush to Provide Help for Automakers - NY Times G20 summit may be fittingly inept end to Bush administration - Telegraph Now are we in a recession? - Jeff Frankel's Blog Lehman Bros.' financial crisis burns Asian bond investors - USA Today The End - Portfolio.com GM Plunges as Deutsche Says It May Become Worthless - Bloomberg Why Washington Cannot Prevent Depression - Money and Markets ...
Recessionary Wednesday Morning
Phil’s Stock World —
... ) agrees, saying: "The weight of evidence is now overwhelming: We are currently in recession." Despite this "stunning" revelation, our nation’s top economic thinkers are still unclear as to the timing, asking: "Did it start at the end of 2007, when employment and the other indicators peaked? Or was the stimulus from the government and from exports enough to postpone the turning point, and did the recession thus only start towards the end of the summer, when ...
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The Great Recession, by Tim Duy : Economic weakness that in many ways did not qualify as recessionary turned
for the worse in the third quarter. Incoming data continues to ...
What is a depression?
calculatedriskblog.com 3/11/2009 — It seems like the "D" word is everywhere. And that raises a question: what is a depression? Although there is no formal definition, most economists agree it is a prolonged slump with a 10% or more decline in real GDP. Yesterday I heard an analyst say ...
Predicting recession
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Why is real GDP growing in a recession?
businessweek.com 12/3/2008 — As I noted yesterday, we have now been in recession for a year, but reported real GDP has actually risen. How can that be? I've looked a bit deeper into this. One of the big problems, I think, is the...
What's the Difference Between a Recession and a Depression?
crossingwallstreet.com 1/2/2009 — Hebert Hoover used the word "depression" instead of "panic" to describe the events of his administration. Since then, there's been a battle to define what's a recession and what's a depression. Most seem to define a depression as a 10% drop in GDP. ...
U.S. Recession Probabilities
uoregon.edu 12/1/2008 — Recession Probabilities This page presents recession probabilities for the United States obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial ...
Fed Fears Long Recession
calculatedriskblog.com 1/7/2009 — The Fed projects GDP to decline in 2009 "as a whole", and unemployment to "rise significantly into 2010". The Fed also expects disinflationary pressures to continue into 2010. From the FOMC Minutes : In the forecast prepared for the meeting, the staff ...
The oil shock and recession of 2008: Part 2
econbrowser.com 1/3/2009 — In my previous post , I presented evidence that the oil price increase over 2007:H2-2008:H1 made a significant contribution to the slowdown in consumption spending in general and decline in spending on domestic automobiles in particular. Here I ...
The Government's Recession Versus Your Recession
247wallst.com 12/1/2008 —
As if you did not notice, the US economy is in a recession. We have been maintaining that for just about the whole of 2008. Now today we have the official data from the National Bureau of Economic Research. The NBER said its ...
The U.S. Didn’t Cause the World Recession
cato-at-liberty.org 2/23/2009 — In the Washington Post , Ricardo Caballero of MIT has a novel and promising idea about “How to Lift a Falling Economy.” Unfortunately, he echoes the mantra that all the world’s economic problems can be traced to the U.S. in general, and ...
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