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bloomberg.com - 1/5/2009

Oil Curve Steeper Than '99 Shows Possible Gain in '09 (Update1)

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Oil Curve Steeper Than '99 Shows Possible Gain in '09 (Update1) By Stuart Wallace and Tim Coulter Jan. 5 (Bloomberg) -- The steepest plunge in crude prices on record may be setting up oil investors for a rally this year, if history is any guide. The so-called forward curve of futures contracts ...

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ritholtz.com - 1/12/2009

Oil Speculation ?

— ritholtz.com — Yesterday’s 60 Minutes had a story on Oil Speculation. Its not that they said anything wrong, its... more that they told 10% of the story of the rise and fall of energy prices. Surprisingly thin, it completely missed all of the many other factors ... (more) Oil Speculation ?

Commodities

Oil

Comments vote downundo vote up The Mess That Greenspan Made found this 1/12/2009found this

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marketsci.wordpress.com - 12/30/2008

Trading Strategy: Oil Stocks vs Oil

— marketsci.wordpress.com — This strategy was inspired by the recent Bespoke post Oil Stocks Outperforming Oil in which Bespoke showed... the historical ratio between the price of oil stocks and the price of oil itself. I’ve reproduced their graph below. Rising values indicate ... (more) Trading Strategy: Oil Stocks vs Oil

Commodities

Oil

Comments vote downundo vote up Abnormal Returns found this 12/30/2008found this

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gregor.us - 1/9/2009

Oil Could Be Next

— gregor.us — There’s a common perception that oil experienced a geo-political risk premium starting after 2001. While this cannot... be quantified, I am not inclined to disagree. But if such a premium moved in and out of oil from time to time in the past 7 ... (more) Oil Could Be Next

Commodities

Oil

Comments vote downundo vote up Todd Sullivan's - ValuePlays found this 1/9/2009found this

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Oversold?
Trader Daily Combined Feed — The steepest plunge in crude prices on record may be setting up oil investors for a rally this year, if history is any guide. The so-called forward curve of futures contracts traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange suggests oil will rise 28 percent to $60.10 a barrel by December. The curve looks almost the same as 10 years ago, after Russia’s default and the collapse of the Long-Term Capital Management LP hedge fund raised concerns that a global economic slowdown would reduce energy demand. Crude prices fell 25 percent in the final quarter of 1998, the steepest drop in seven years. Bets on a recovery paid off then as the Organization of ...

Oil, Another 'Trouble in Middle East' Bounce
[ The Financial Ninja ] — A bounce to $50 and even $55 isn't excessive. Prices are now above the declining 20 day EMA (blue line) and should gravitate to the 50 day EMA (red line). This is nothing but a technical bounce that happens to co-incide with the classic 'Trouble in the Middle East' trade. So don't get too excited. Oil Curve Steeper Than '99 ...

One-year futures see $60 oil by January 2010
BloggingStocks — Filed under: Forecasts, Commodities, OilHas oil bottomed? It may have, if one-year futures contracts are any indicator. The one-year futures curve for oil -- contracts that price oil to be delivered in December -- traded at $60.10 per barrel Monday, a price that's 28% higher than the current price, Bloomberg News reported Monday. Oil fell 44 cents early Monday to $45.90 per barrel. Energy Trader Jim Dietz told BloggingStocks several factor are at play in the one-year oil futures price. "First, you have a really beaten-down commodity, strange as that may seem to say about oil, but it really has ...