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Commodities

Oil

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econbrowser.com - 4/26/2009

Oil shocks and recessions

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Here I provide some more background on the relation between oil price increases and economic recessions. When I first began working on my Ph.D. dissertation in 1980, I was intrigued by the fact that the oil embargo of 1973-74 and the collapse in Iranian oil production after the revolution in ...

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econbrowser.com - 4/30/2009

Good economic news?

— econbrowser.com — Today's GDP numbers were about what I was expecting. Although economic activity continued its sharp decline, if... we continue to follow the script, things should improve. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today that U.S. real GDP fell at a ... (more) Good economic news?

Commodities

Gross Domestic Product

Comments vote downundo vote up The Skeptical Speculator found this 4/30/2009found this

3

baselinescenario.com - 4/30/2009

GDP Growth Rates for Beginners

— baselinescenario.com — For a complete list of Beginners articles, see Financial Crisis for Beginners . My post about French... sociology got a wide range of comments, ranging from “Without a doubt, your best post yet” to “Reading this post made me think, for the first time, of ignoring Baseline ... (more) GDP Growth Rates for Beginners

Currencies

Inflation

Gross Domestic Product

Comments vote downundo vote up jamesykwak posted 4/30/2009posted this

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businessinsider.com - 4/29/2009

Positive GDP As Soon As Next Quarter

— businessinsider.com — This morning's headline GDP numbers were pretty horrific, but the Dow is up 110 points, perhaps because... of that one consumer spending green shoot. And as deep as the number is, it's possible we'll see positive growth very soon. So says Richard Moody ... (more) Positive GDP As Soon As Next Quarter

Stocks

Gross Domestic Product

Moody's

Comments vote downundo vote up Abnormal Returns found this 4/29/2009found this

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links for 2009-04-26
Economist's View — ... A messy future awaits central bankers - The Economist Oil shocks and recessions - Econbrowser Our Drunken ...

Even Bad Poetry
Lawrance G. Lux — ... I would first like to say that I do not agree with James Hamilton’s Argument, though all elements of it can be justified. It all revolves around the Value that you place on Marginals. James states that several elements could have had only marginal favorable changes, and We could have avoided the Recession. These marginal changes could have been accomplished, but the Recession would have occurred anyway. I have always believed that Recessions come from an overexpansion of a human factor–excessive Greed. They come to be because too many Sectors seek to withdraw too extensive a ...

Sunday links: junk stock surge
Abnormal Returns — ... “Was the oil shock of 2007-08 the sole cause of the recession? Certainly not. But did it make a material contribution? In my opinion, the answer unquestionably is yes.”  (Econbrowser) ...

Further reading
FT Alphaville — Principal content Further reading Posted by Gwen Robinson on Apr 27 08:17. Elsewhere on Monday, - The battle between fear and fear . - How necessities become luxuries. - Oil shocks and recessions . - The upside of swine flu, for one Aussie biotech company. -  Too-big-to-fail and three other narratives. - On the difference between gold and gold miners . - Hazards of the flat-hazard rate . - The UK isn’t behaving very ‘triple -A’. - Only Oracle really knows why it bought Sun . - Worst-Slide-Story - a ...

links for 2009-04-27
J. Bradford DeLong's Grasping Reality with All Eight Tentacles — ... Menzie Chinnr: Two Books: Animal Spirits and The Myth of the Rational Market Jim Hamilton: Oil shocks and recessions James Kwak: Too-Big-To-Fail and Three Other ...

Commodity Bulls And The Seven Fat Cows
Daily Markets — ... ). Commodity inflation would inevitably followed by a deflationary collapse caused by massive demand destruction. James Hamilton, who blogs at Econobrower , wrote extensively on the connection between oil prices and economic growth [emphasis mine]: When I first began working on my Ph.D. dissertation in 1980, I was intrigued by the fact that the oil embargo of 1973-74 and the collapse in Iranian oil production after the revolution in 1978 were both followed by global recessions. But when I called attention to the fact there had been a sharp increase in the price of oil prior to ...

Economic historians will really have their work cut out for them
Newmark's Door — ... One is the run up in oil prices, as discussed by James Hamilton (see, for instance, this post). Professor Hamilton argues that ten of the eleven postwar recessions have been followed by a "sharp increase in the price of oil". ...

Rapidly Expanding Suburbs Start Contracting
FuturePundit — ... The recession and housing collapse have halted four decades of double-digit growth for nearly half of the nation's biggest rapidly expanding suburbs. Twenty-four of the 53 cities of 100,000 or more that grew by at least 10% every decade since 1970 lost population in the last two years. This is blamed on the recession. But I think the oil price peak in the summer of 2008 (which by itself was enough to trigger a recession and we are ...