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On Revisions and on Conditioning
On Revisions and on Conditioning
Both have to be "handled with care". Revisions We're all tempted to make predictions on the basis of the last data point. And even more difficult to resist is the temptation to make definitive statements on the basis of data that are sure to be revised. For instance, we see this question ...
A welcome GDP report
A welcome GDP report
econbrowser.com — The Commerce Department reported today that the seasonally adjusted real value of the nation's production of goods... and services grew at a 3.5% annual rate during the third quarter, a little better than the 3.2% average seen since 1947.  ... (more) A welcome GDP report
Baseline Scenario, October 30, 2009
baselinescenario.com — Yesterday morning I testified to a Joint Economic Committee of Congress hearing. The session discussed the latest... GDP numbers, the impact of the fiscal stimulus earlier this year, and whether we need further fiscal expansion of any kind. I argued that a global recovery is underway and in ... (more) Baseline Scenario, October 30, 2009
Stimulating thoughts, 3rd quarter edition
Stimulating thoughts, 3rd quarter edition
krugman.blogs.nytimes.com — The good news from the new GDP report is that the fiscal stimulus seems to be working... just about the way a sensible Keynesian approach says it should. That's also the bad news. f (more) Stimulating thoughts, 3rd quarter edition
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links for 2009-11-01
J. Bradford DeLong's Grasping Reality with All Eight Tentacles — ... The Curious Capitalist Menzie Chinn Does Some Intellectual Garbage Pickup: On Revisions and on Conditioning Both have to be "handled with ...

Life as We know it
Lawrance G. Lux — ... Here is one of those places where I tend to disagree with Menzie Chinn. We were a great distance from a serious drop in GDP, and the Fed intervention was hasty and overlarge to my thinking. There is a real problem with Employment, and perhaps an even greater hazard from Inflation. We are being distracted by a fall in Housing prices, while most of the rest of Product Pricing is going up. I would like to acquire some numbers on the actual real Cost of Housing as a percentage of real Income; remember the Housing Price reductions occurred only after the mortgages were taken out set ...

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Is Germany Dependent on Exports to Grow?
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