nytimes.com - 3/1/2009
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IT would be premature to declare an end to America’s recession at the first sign of a resumption of growth. After the unusually steep declines in the economy late last year and early this year, a statistical rebound in the second half of 2009 would hardly be shocking. It could be driven by the ...
nytimes.com - 3/1/2009
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nytimes.com —
THE fundamental causes of this recession, unique in
the experience of the United States, were mortgage defaults...
and the consequent insolvency of major financial firms. These insolvencies, and especially fear of them, damaged normal credit mechanisms. ...
(more)
Op-Ed Contributor - Stop the Bailouts
nytimes.com - 3/1/2009
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nytimes.com —
LAST year, the debate over how long the
recession will last was between those in the consensus...
who argued that it would be V-shaped only about eight months long like those in 1990 to 1991 and in 2001 and those like me who argued that it would last ...
(more)
Op-Ed Contributor - The L Curve
nytimes.com - 3/2/2009
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nytimes.com —
“WHEN you stop asking,” was the exasperated reply
of the broker to the pestering client who asked...
the same question over and over during the 1974 stock-market crash: When will it end? Nobody knew, or could know. The broker, wiser than he realized, ...
(more)
Op-Ed Contributor - If You Have to Ask...
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NY Times: "When Will the Recession Be Over?"
Calculated Risk —
The NY Times asked several economists and forecasters 'When Will the Recession Be Over?' Here are a few excerpts: Beware the False Dawn By STEPHEN S.ROACH (Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia) IT would be premature to declare an end to America’s recession at the first sign of a resumption of growth. After the unusually steep declines in the economy late last year and early this year, a statistical rebound in the second half of 2009 would hardly be shocking. ... But any such whiffs of growth are likely to herald a false dawn, because the consumer ...
Why There is No Bottom: Economic Forecasts
A Dash of Insight —
... perception of the economic prospects. The New York Times pulled together a number of op-ed pieces, asking When Will the Recession be Over? This is powerful material, drawing together the opinions of many experts. Readers should review all of the pieces. We know from reader feedback, emails, and calls that it was an important article. Jim Grant, erudite, polished, and persuasive, tells us, "don't ask when." Stephen Roach, of Morgan Stanley, predicts late 2010 or 2011. A. Michael Spence, the Nobel-Prize winning ...
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