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Op-Ed Contributor - Rule of Four
WHEN our economic woes began, analysts took some solace that the longest American recession since World War II lasted 16 months, and that on average our recessions lasted less than a year. But as this contraction continues into its 15th month, we have been forced to look to more severe ...
Op-Ed Contributor - Stop the Bailouts
nytimes.com — THE fundamental causes of this recession, unique in the experience of the United States, were mortgage defaults... and the consequent insolvency of major financial firms. These insolvencies, and especially fear of them, damaged normal credit mechanisms. ... (more) Op-Ed Contributor - Stop the Bailouts
Op-Ed Contributors: When Will the Recession Be Over?
Op-Ed Contributors: When Will the Recession Be Over?
nytimes.com — The fall in the U.S. gross domestic product suggests that the recession may be deeper than anticipated.... Experts weigh in on how long the weakness in the economy will last. > (more) Op-Ed Contributors: When Will the Recession Be Over?
Op-Ed Contributor - The L Curve
nytimes.com — LAST year, the debate over how long the recession will last was between those in the consensus... who argued that it would be V-shaped — only about eight months long like those in 1990 to 1991 and in 2001 — and those like me who argued that it would last ... (more) Op-Ed Contributor - The L Curve
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links for 2009-03-01
Economist's View — A Long Goodbye - Spence - NYTimes.com Stop the Bailouts - Poole - NYTimes.com Technological Regress in the Thinking of Poole - Brad DeLong It Can’t Last Forever - Blinder - NYTimes.com Rule of Four - Reinhart - NYTimes.com The L Curve - Roubini - NYTimes.com Rick Santelli’s Planted Rant ? - The Big Picture Regulations that will stop the next bubble - Daniel Gross The future of monetary policy in Zimbabwe - voxeu.org ...

NYT asks when will it end?
Angry Bear — ... Even with zero interest rates and huge deficits, Japan suffered a “lost decade” in the 1990s — and that was when the rest of the world was doing well. This recession is taking place as the rest of the world is doing even worse than the United States. The collapse of trade as measured by East Asian export data is petrifying...At the moment, I find it quite easy to imagine two consecutive years of contraction. And I don’t rule out two more lean years after that. Carmen M. Reinhart is a professor of economics at the University of Maryland. Counting ...

Why There is No Bottom: Economic Forecasts
A Dash of Insight — ... University of Maryland economist Carmen Reinhart focuses on a return to normal growth, setting out four years or more as the time frame. ...

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Op-Ed Contributor - A Long Goodbye
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Op-Ed Contributor - This Economy Does Not Compute - Op-Ed
nytimes.com 10/3/2008 — Notre-Dame-de-Courson, France A FEW weeks ago, it seemed the financial crisis wouldn’t spin completely out of control. The government knew what it was doing — at least the economic experts were saying so — and the Treasury had taken a stand against ...
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Depression architecture: Uplift from downturnThe Economist: Full print edition 2/26/2009
The last severe recession left a lasting legacy. Will this one? IMAGES of the Great Depression in Britain are dominated by grim pictures of rivers of cloth-capped unemployed men and, iconically in the north of England, newsreels of the march of the ...
Down, Dow, Down!The Big Money 3/2/2009
I am a heretic, an economic masochist, a traitor to my industry and my country. When the Dow Jones Industrial Average starts falling, I hope it keeps falling. I am a man who roots for the stock market to go down. Forgive me, capitalism, for I have ...