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links for 2009-03-01
Economist's View —
A Long Goodbye - Spence - NYTimes.com
Stop the Bailouts - Poole - NYTimes.com
Technological Regress in the Thinking of Poole - Brad DeLong
It Can’t Last Forever - Blinder - NYTimes.com
Rule of Four - Reinhart - NYTimes.com
The L Curve - Roubini - NYTimes.com
Rick Santelli’s Planted Rant ? - The Big Picture
Regulations that will stop the next bubble - Daniel Gross
The future of monetary policy in Zimbabwe - voxeu.org ...
Why There is No Bottom: Economic Forecasts
A Dash of Insight —
... in the fourth quarter of 2009, but with many caveats. University of California-Riverside economists Marcelle Chauvet and Kevin A. Hassett take a probabilistic approach based upon past recessions, and see the probability of the current downturn lasting through 2009 at 50-50. University of Maryland economist Carmen Reinhart focuses on a return to normal growth, setting out four years or more as the time frame. NYU Econ Prof Nouriel Roubini sees a three-year recession, with chances for much worse. A Different ...
As Economic Reports Worsen, Experts Predict A Longer Downturn
Daily Markets —
... and the huge money creation will drag it back.” Noted Hutchinson: “It won’t get all that much deeper - it’s not 1929-33 - but my estimated emergence date is about 2013. The economy will remain essentially flat till then, although wobbles may make [it look like a "W-shaped" recovery] -until you realize there are more than two bends in the ‘W’.” Nouriel Roubini, the professor with York University’s Stern School of Business who predicted the current financial and economic crises, wrote in the March 1 edition of The New York Times that the recession could last a total of 36 ...
What shape the US economic recession and recovery?
FT Alphaville —
Forget U, V, W or even the newly Roubini-endorsed L when it comes to the shape of the US recession, for Deutsche Bank has introduced the “diminishing sine wave.” FT Alphaville is not making this up. Here’s the chart, which was included in the bank’s latest Global Economic Perspectives note: Chart of DB's As Paul J Davies put it this morning, “Surely we have now seen everything.” Related links: ...
“Just because the conventional economists are drinking the Kool-Aid doesn’t mean you have to”
FT Alphaville —
... cannot be readily dismissed. Outside of the bounce in the otherwise moribund automotive area, those green shoots are hardly turning into redwoods. But by far our favourite bit of the note is Rosenberg’s depiction of the L-shaped recovery (to say nothing of his swipe at “conventional economists” and the herd mentality): There seems to be quite a lot of confusion over what an “L-shaped” recovery is all about. It’s not that the economy just stagnates after the recession ends — it’s more like the growth rate is choppy, sloppy and toppy. It is below-trend and deflationary. We ...
