norris.blogs.nytimes.com - 11/12/2008
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With 60 percent of junk bonds trading as if default were likely, either some bonds are good buys or economic disaster is approaching.
epicureandealmaker.blogspot.com - 11/12/2008
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epicureandealmaker.blogspot.com —
The Dude: "Look, nothing is fucked, here, man."
The Big Lebowski: "Nothing is fucked?! The goddamn plane...
has crashed into the mountain!!" — The Big Lebowski Dealbreaker.com did a nice job yesterday quoting the I-Ching of all earthly ...
(more)
Et in Arcadia Ego
housingwire.com - 11/20/2008
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housingwire.com —
Severe delinquencies on recent-vintage Alt-A RMBS are quickly
getting worse than expected, Moody’s Investors Service said earlier...
this week; the rating agency said worsening trends in Alt-A have forced it to undertake a revision of lifetime loss ...
(more)
Alt-A Losses Outstripping Expectations, Moody’s ...
reuters.com - 11/7/2008
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reuters.com —
NEW YORK, Nov 7 (Reuters) - Moody's Investors
Service on Friday cut its ratings on MBIA Inc's...
(MBI.N: Quote , Profile , Research , Stock Buzz ) insurance arm and also sent ratings on the holding company's debt into junk territory, citing diminished ...
(more)
Moody's cuts MBIA Insurance to Baa1
| Markets
| ...
Comments
Blog Reactions
Wednesday links: they are the system
Abnormal Returns —
... “Either the economy is going to get much, much worse than anything we have lived through, or there are some bargains to be found in junk bonds and leveraged loans.” (Floyd Norris) ...
The Borderline
Dealbreaker —
... to be a dire lot. To wit:
Moody's is out with its monthly default report today, finding that defaults among speculative grade borrowers are rising, but are still not very high. It expects defaults to soar next year, with the global rate at or above the peak levels seen in the last two recessions.
It is not that this analysis is daft (well, not solely that) and not that it is from the New York Times, but that it is all these things at once.
Overreaction, or Coming Collapse? [The New York Times via ">Abnormal Returns ...
Further Reading
FT Alphaville —
... would you bet after the 20th black?” - Corporate defaults : Overreaction or coming collapse? - Banks 2.0: Instead of trying to bail out the current banking system, why not ...
Related Content
Blaming Moody’s
ritholtz.com 12/7/2008 —
“These errors make us look either incompetent at credit analysis or like we sold our soul to the devil for revenue, or a little bit of both.”
— A Moody’s managing director responding anonymously to an internal management survey, September 2007.
...
Moody’s Intrinsic Value
widemoatinvesting.wordpress.com 4/10/2009 — 2008 was a tough year for Moody’s Corporation, with free cash flow (FCF) levels falling to 2003 levels, or $450 million. In our previous analysis, we argued that Moody’s economic moat has shrunk over the last couple of years, as its credit ratings for ...
Credit Crisis Indicators
calculatedriskblog.com 4/3/2009 — Here is a quick look at a few credit indicators: First, the British Bankers' Association reported that the three-month dollar Libor rates were fixed at 1.166%. The LIBOR was at 1.30% a couple of weeks ago, and peaked at 4.81875% on Oct 10, 2008. This ...
Buffett Is Unusually Silent on Rating Agencies
dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com 3/22/2009 — In his annual Berkshire Hathaway letter, Warren E. Buffett recently urged investors to pose tough questions at the shareholders meeting in May. Here is one that The New York Times's David Segal says is on the mind of some Buffett watchers: When are ...
Bond Trading Highest Since ‘07
calculatedriskblog.com 2/20/2009 — From Bloomberg: Bond Trading Highest Since ‘07 as Credit Freeze Thaws Corporate bond trading in the U.S. is rising to the highest level in two years, adding to evidence that credit markets are thawing even with stocks off to their worst start since ...
Armageddon in Corporate Bonds
globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com 10/21/2008 — I have been warning everyone about corporate bonds specifically because of rising default risk and rollover risk for quite some time. And indeed Corporate bonds are getting crushed. Here is a chart of Moody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield . Baa ...
Record Spreads between 30 Year Corporate and Treasury Yields
calculatedrisk.blogspot.com 11/16/2008 — Here is another measure of credit stress. The following graph shows the spread between 30 year Moody's Aaa and Baa rated bonds and the 30 year treasury. The Moody's data is from the St. Louis Fed : Moody's tries to include bonds with remaining ...
Rubber Stamp Agencies
economistsview.typepad.com 12/11/2008 — Ratings agencies are supposed to solve market failures, not create them. The market failure arises because in most cases it's prohibitively costly for individual investors to collect and analyze the information they need to make informed judgments ...
Default Count Rises to Highest Since Great Depression (Update1)
bloomberg.com 4/7/2009 — April 7 (Bloomberg) -- Thirty-five companies defaulted in March, the highest number in a single month since the Great Depression, according to Moody’s Investors Service . The rate at which speculative-grade corporate borrowers worldwide failed to ...
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