cboblog.cbo.gov - 3/21/2009
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We have just released our latest projections for the budget and economic outlook, updating the projections published in early January 2009. In addition, we have reviewed the President’s budgetary proposals contained in the February publication A New Era of Responsibility: Renewing America’s ...
econbrowser.com - 3/15/2009
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econbrowser.com —
When good news comes, what should we expect
to see? The graph below plots the quarterly percentage
change (at an annual rate) for real GDP and some of its key components since 1947. Calculated Risk has noted that the typical recession pattern is ...
(more)
What will recovery look like?
cboblog.cbo.gov - 3/24/2009
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cboblog.cbo.gov —
The CBO’s budget projections released last Friday are
based in part on our economic forecast. In this
blog entry, I want to discuss how our projection of real (that is, inflation-adjusted) GDP, one of the most important economic factors in the ...
(more)
CBO’s Economic Projections
globaleconomydoesmatter.blogspot.com - 3/21/2009
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globaleconomydoesmatter.blogspot.com —
by Edward Hugh: Barcelona "Most other countries in
the region are faring much better, though....Like Slovenia, which
joined two years ago, Slovakia can enjoy the full protection of rich Europe’s currency union, rather than just the indirect benefit of being due to join it some day." The ...
(more)
Slovenia's Economy Falls Off The Roof, While Slovakia ...
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CBO projections
Paul Krugman —
Just a quick note on the new, pessimistic CBO budget projections : 1. These projections have no bearing on the case for a large stimulus now — none. Adding, say, another $600 billion to stimulus spending would, on net, add around $400 billion to debt a decade from now (net is less than gross because the stimulus expands GDP, which leads to higher revenues that partly offset the initial outlay.) This would make essentially no difference to the outlook. ...
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Good economic news?
econbrowser.com 4/30/2009 — Today's GDP numbers were about what I was expecting. Although economic activity continued its sharp decline, if we continue to follow the script, things should improve.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today that U.S. real GDP fell at a ...
The financial return on energy invested
europe.theoildrum.com 6/23/2009 —
Global GDP data from the USDA. Primary energy data and energy prices from the BP statistical reveiw of world energy 2009.
Global GDP has grown steadily and continuously since WWII, in step with a growing global population and primary energy ...
A V-shaped recession?
econbrowser.com 7/2/2009 — As James Morley has pointed out, often a sharp economic downturn is followed by an equally sharp economic recovery. One reason for that is the liquidation of inventories that accompanies any recession and restocking that takes place in recovery. What ...
GDP Goosed By TARP
ritholtz.com 2/2/2009 — Over the weekend, a hedgie friend added to our understanding of how bad GDP really was.
We already knew that the rise in inventory contributed 1.29% points to GDP growth. Without the inventory build, the GDP number would have been down 5.1%.And, it ...
China’s Magic Numbers
thebigmoney.com 7/19/2009 — BEIJING-China, on Thursday, announced its second-quarter gross domestic product-a big deal here. It's not just the Chinese government's top priority but a nearly sacrosanct number. Growth came in at an astounding 7.9 percent. But could China's GDP ...
Den Of Liars
market-ticker.denninger.net 12/24/2008 —
That would be our government. It of course includes Congress, and until proven otherwise, all who came from Congress , including our President-Elect. Yeah, I know, we only have one President at a time. That's fine. But here's reality: ...
Where We Are, Where We're Heading (2009)
market-ticker.denninger.net 1/1/2009 —
Let's score the 2008 edition predictions first: US will enter a recession : Confirmed by NBER. Check. Unemployment will rise north of 5% . Check (bigtime) Housing will not turn in 2008. Major check. The story in 2008 will be ...
The Commercial Real Estate Bust
calculatedrisk.blogspot.com 11/10/2008 — Since investment in non-residential structures is slowing (especially malls, hotels, and offices), a key question is how did the commercial real estate (CRE) investment boom compare to the residential housing bubble? And how did the CRE boom compare ...
How Not to Stimulate the Economy
gregmankiw.blogspot.com 12/22/2008 — In thinking through the fiscal policy options and their implications, it might be useful to compare a few hypothetical, fanciful scenarios. Suppose that the federal government borrows some money and then... Case A : uses the money to give a lump-sum ...
Financial Crisis and Recession
woodwardhall.wordpress.com 12/11/2008 — The Obama administration’s focus on infrastructure spending raises the natural question of the effect of government purchases on total GDP. Does government spending stimulate other categories of spending, especially consumer spending? Or does ...
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