Submit a Story!
Prospects for Employment under Differing Econometric Specifications
Prospects for Employment under Differing Econometric Specifications
Most economists are projecting a slow recovery in terms of employment. What do historical correlations imply? In order to investigate this question, I examine the relationship between GDP and nonfarm payroll employment over the 1986-2009 period, which encompasses the "Great Moderation". ...
Baseline Scenario, October 30, 2009
baselinescenario.com — Yesterday morning I testified to a Joint Economic Committee of Congress hearing. The session discussed the latest... GDP numbers, the impact of the fiscal stimulus earlier this year, and whether we need further fiscal expansion of any kind. I argued that a global recovery is underway and in ... (more) Baseline Scenario, October 30, 2009
The Curious Capitalist
curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com — What can we learn from this morning's surprisingly strong 3.5% real GDP growth report ? 1) Goldman... Sachs does not know all. The bank's economists had been on eerie run of sending out prescient alerts the day before major data releases—mainly the ... (more) The Curious Capitalist
The GDP Mirage
The GDP Mirage
businessweek.com — By overlooking cuts in research and development, product design, and worker training, GDP is greatly overstating the... economy's strength (more) The GDP Mirage
Comments
Blog Reactions

links for 2009-11-02
Economist's View — ... Help Small Businesses Hire Again - NYTimes.com Prospects for Employment under Differing Econometric Specifications - Econbrowser ...

Related Content
Employment Report Preview
oldprof.typepad.com 8/7/2009 — Each month we ask the question, "What change in payroll employment would be consistent with other economic data from the same time period (the middle of the prior month)? This is not a forecast, per se , since we do not posit any causal relationship ...
On Revisions and on Conditioning
econbrowser.com 11/1/2009 — Both have to be "handled with care". Revisions We're all tempted to make predictions on the basis of the last data point. And even more difficult to resist is the temptation to make definitive statements on the basis of data that are sure to ...
Employment, Hours, and Estimated Output
econbrowser.com 8/9/2009 — Some observations on the employment situation and other economic indicators: (1) Not only is nonfarm payroll employment slowing its rate of descent, so is private employment; (2) but perhaps more dramatically the decline of aggregate hours halted ...
The Employment Situation in January
econbrowser.com 2/8/2009 — Looks pretty bad to me -- especially after taking into account downward revisions for December. Not too good on the output side either. Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment, seasonally adjusted, various releases. NBER defined recession dates ...
It's not over yet
econbrowser.com 8/9/2009 — Some are greeting Friday's employment report as an all-clear signal. But my advice is, keep your helmet on-- they're still shooting real bullets out there. Let's start with the good news. I first called attention to the favorable turn in new ...
Good News and Bad News from the GDP release
econbrowser.com 8/1/2009 — Some additional observations (see Jim Hamilton's take , as well as others ) on the GDP release: (1) the five year revision indicates that GDP was larger than we thought, but it also declined faster in 2009Q1; (2) GDP growth was lower throughout 2008 ...
Interesting Econometric Result of the Day: And the Prospects for a Growth Bounceback
econbrowser.com 3/5/2009 — The exchange between Brad Delong and Greg Mankiw ( [1] [2] , followed up by [3] [4] ) reminded me of some earlier work Iqd done with Yin-Wong Cheung on the time series properties of real GDP, back in the "unit root" wars. Briefly, Mankiw was ...
Will rising oil prices derail the recovery?
econbrowser.com 25 days ago — Last April I described new research on the role of oil prices in the recent recession. Here's an update on what's happened since then. In a paper presented at the Brookings Institution last spring , I examined the post-sample forecasting ...
Is Germany Dependent on Exports to Grow?
fistfulofeuros.net 9/30/2009 — The analysis that follows should really be taken along with Edward’s recent thoughts on the Global Imbalances situation as well as his latest economic survey of the current state of play in the German economy . Essentially, I am going to have a look at what is, arguably, one of the more ...
The Employment Report and the Birth/Death Adjustment
oldprof.typepad.com 8/7/2009 — Nearly everyone interested in the markets pays special attention to the monthly employment situation report. Briefing.com gives it the highest rating for importance. CNBC commentators todaysaid that everyone was breathless, waiting for the ...