gregmankiw.blogspot.com - 12/3/2008
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According to U.S. Treasury data , the five-year real interest rate from the TIPS market on 11/28/08 was 4.17 percent. Yesterday , it was 2.03 percent. What happened? It appears to be, in large measure, a figment of data construction. Here is how the data are made: Real yields on Treasury TIPS ...
calculatedrisk.blogspot.com - 12/4/2008
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calculatedrisk.blogspot.com —
There were two stories published today concerning house
prices and interest rates. The first story came out...
this morning, and quoted a report from Global Insight suggesting "the housing market is now slightly undervalued". Please stop laughing ... And ...
(more)
House Prices and Interest Rates
seattletimes.nwsource.com - 11/30/2008
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seattletimes.nwsource.com —
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut
interest rates again — and might even cut all...
the way to zero — to revive the economy. A 0.5 percentage point cut is expected at the central bank's Dec. 15-16 meeting, which would bring the target to 0.5 ...
(more)
Business & Technology | Fed may cut interest rates even ...
telegraph.co.uk - 12/4/2008
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telegraph.co.uk —
Rates have never been any lower since the
Bank's foundation in 1694. The aggressive move, which most...
economists had forecast, comes as a raft of data shows the state of the economy is worsening by the day. Earlier today, Halifax, the country's ...
(more)
Interest rates cut: Bank of England cuts rates from 3 ...
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TIPS yields
Econbrowser —
... Greg Mankiw notes some odd behavior this week in the values reported by the U.S. Treasury for the yields on constant-maturity Treasury Inflation Protected Securities. ...
Wednesday links: scaling back
Abnormal Returns —
... The use of TIPS yields to estimate inflation expectations is more complex than at first blush. (Mankiw Blog, ...
Discontinued Expectations II
self-evident —
... this distinction makes no difference; the on-the-run and off-the-run TIPS will yield the same payments. But if we are going to experience deflation first, then the on-the-run TIPS will yield higher payments and therefore be more desirable.
Now, if you are looking at the yields on TIPS to get an idea of what kind of inflation the market expects, which would you want to use? The one that actually tracks the CPI, or the one that has an artificial floor in it?
Greg Mankiw: Real Interest Rates Plunge!
According to U.S. Treasury data, the five-year ...
Declining Treasury Yields & The Inflation-Deflation Debate
Stefan Karlsson's blog —
... Is it a result of falling inflation expectations? To some extent, yes, as is suggested in the dramatic decrease in the spread between nominal treasuries and inflation-protected ones (TIPS). However, much of the decline in that spread reflects the much higher liquidity of nominal treasuries and the increasing liquidity premium. And there are also other strange aspects of the TIPS market that makes it less reliable as an inflation indicator. Even so, it seems likely that inflation expectations have declined. ...
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Why are real interest rates rising?
gregmankiw.blogspot.com 10/4/2008 — One might have thought that widespread fear in financial markets would cause a flight to quality, driving the price of safe assets up and their yields down. That certainly has been happening with short-term Treasury bills. But look above to see ...
More on Negative Interest Rates
gregmankiw.blogspot.com 4/22/2009 — Commentary on my negative interest rate piece in the NY Times (and the follow-up here ) continues to pour in. To answer the most common queries: Yes, the serial-number-lottery plan was tongue-in-cheek. The goal of mentioning it was to get people ...
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