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avc.com - 11/23/2008

A Lost Decade - But Not For Everyone

— avc.com — One of the best posts I read this week was from Fortune's Andy Serwer . In it,... he noted: At the end of 1999 the Dow was around 11,400. Today the Dow is at 8,400, which means the index has fallen some 26%, a decline of almost 3% per year. With just ... (more) A Lost Decade - But Not For Everyone

Stocks

Comments vote downundo vote up Howard Lindzon found this 11/23/2008found this

2

ritholtz.com - 11/25/2008

Big Bailouts, Bigger Bucks

— ritholtz.com — Whenever I discuss the current bailout situation, I find people have a hard time comprehending the actual... numbers involved. That was a problem for the book , and I needed a way to put this into proper historical perspective. If we add in the Citi ... (more) Big Bailouts, Bigger Bucks

Currencies

Inflation

Comments vote downundo vote up FT Alphaville found this 11/25/2008found this

1

crossingwallstreet.com - 11/20/2008

Inflation and Stocks

— crossingwallstreet.com — With today’s report showing how steeply prices fell last month, I wanted to revisit the issue of... inflation’s impact on stock prices. Let me add the important caveat that correlation doesn’t necessarily mean causation. The short answer is that ... (more) Inflation and Stocks

Currencies

Inflation

Comments vote downundo vote up Abnormal Returns found this 11/20/2008found this

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A Tale of Two Paulsons
Manhattan Institute Articles — ... Back the Gold/Dollar Link - Richard Duncan, Financial Times The Fed Is Out of Ammunition - Christopher Wood, Wall Street Journal RealClearMarkets Off The Street This Is No Time for Partisanship - Doug Kass, TheStreet.com Is Bank of America Next Up for a Bailout? - Doug McIntyre, 24/7 Wall St. Fool Me Once, Shame on Me. Fool Me Twice, You're Bankrupt - J. Hempton Citigroup’s Bailout: Outrageous or Courageous? - H. Moore, Deal Journal Inflation Should Be Just Around the Corner - P. Boone & S. Johnson, RTE Towards a Health-Care ...

The Inflation Is Coming, The Inflation Is Coming (?)
The Baseline Scenario — ... It points to inflation.  Inflation has many drawbacks and brings its own serious risks, but inflation is better than the alternative which, as President-Elect Obama said on Saturday, is now a deflationary spiral (falling wages and prices).  The policymakers are going all in and the question now, we argue in a piece on WSJ.com this morning, is whether inflation still lies within their reach. ...

I think I see a pattern
self-evident — ... has to be credible today, lest there be an immediate increase in long-term nominal interest rates when the central bank monetises public debt and deficits, due to higher long-term inflation expectations.  That commitment by the government to run sufficiently large primary budget surpluses (budget surpluses excluding interest)  has to be credible today, lest there be an immediate increase in sovereign default risk premia as the government increases its borrowing. Peter Boone and Simon Johnson In a brilliant speech in November 2002, Ben ...

Observations and Sentiment for Tuesday
InvivoAnalytics.com — ... at a revised 3.7 percent annual rate in the third quarter, more than the 3.1 percent decrease estimated by Commerce last month. Wage figures showed a smaller gain than previously estimated in the second quarter, reflecting the weakening job market. Salaries grew $13.3 billion, $37.3 billion less than Commerce had projected.” It seems obvious to me that there is disinflation — if not outright deflation — going on, but it’s never that clear for economists. Some people even think that reflation is around the corner , meaning inflation will be back sooner than thought. My ...

More Signs of Monetary Expansion
The Baseline Scenario — ... In their Real Time Economics post a week ago, Simon and Peter argued that this is precisely what we need. However, opinions differ - some fear that the increased long-term risk of inflation outweighs the benefits of monetary stimulus now. ...

Kenneth Rogoff Embraces Inflation
The Baseline Scenario — ... . I wouldn’t ordinarily just pass along a link you can find elsewhere, but I can’t help remarking that that makes two former chief economists of the IMF to take this position. That was Simon’s old job; his article on the topic is here. Of course, you are free to keep whatever opinion you may have about the IMF and its chief economists. ...