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NY Fed's Dudley: Downside Risks to Inflation for "next year or two"
Calculated Risk —
From NY Fed President William Dudley: A Bit Better, But Very Far From Best ... My assessment of where things stand today is mixed. On the positive side, the financial markets are performing better and the economy is now recovering. ... On the negative side, the unemployment rate is much too high and it seems likely that the recovery will be less robust than desired. This means that the economy has significant excess slack and implies that we face meaningful downside risks to inflation over the next year or two. ... ... ...
Report: Manhattan Office Vacancy Rate Increases, Rents Decline
Calculated Risk —
... Five Year High, Cushman Says Manhattan’s third-quarter office vacancy rate hit a five-year high ... The rate rose to 11.1 percent, the highest since the third quarter of 2004, New York-based broker Cushman & Wakefield said in a statement today. Rents fell 5.2 percent from the second quarter to $57.08 a square foot and were down 22 percent from a year earlier. emphasis added Yesterday, NY Fed President commented about falling commercial real estate prices: First, the capitalization ...
Osborne vs the markets
Stumbling and Mumbling —
... around the world. This works through several channels, among them: 1. Global savings are high. Yes, the recession has reduced the global savings ratio, thanks to the paradox of thrift. But it’s still high - over 20%. The IMF estimates that the world economy will save £7.8 trillion this year and £8.5 trn next. 2. High risk aversion is raising demand for bonds. 10 year US Treasury yields have fallen half a percentage point since the summer, in part because of doubts about the US economy. 3.The policy response to the recession entails buying bonds. ...
Prospects for a small business-fueled employment recovery
macroblog —
... In a speech yesterday, William Dudley, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, identified financial constraints for small businesses as a restraint on the pace of economic recovery. Specifically, he said: ...
Small Business and Employment
Calculated Risk —
... In a speech yesterday, William Dudley, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, identified financial constraints for small businesses as a restraint on the pace of economic recovery. ...
Report: Pimco, Baupost Quit CIT Bondholder Committee
Calculated Risk —
... In a speech [Monday], William Dudley, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, identified financial constraints for small businesses as a restraint on the pace of economic recovery. ...
Being Hit With A Disportionate Share Of The Fallout
Daily Markets —
... the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s macroblog discusses the impact that the Great Unraveling is having on mom-and-pop businesses: In a speech [Monday], William Dudley, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, identified financial constraints for small businesses as a restraint on the pace of economic recovery. Specifically, he said:“For small business borrowers, there are three problems. First, the fundamentals of their businesses have often deteriorated because of the length and severity of the recession-making many less creditworthy. Second, some sources of ...
Open Mouth Operations
self-evident —
... with Warsh going off the reservation two weeks ago, then it might be an anomaly.
But that was followed by Richard “speed and intensity” Fisher (speech), Charles “Great Inflation” Plosser (speech), Jeffrey “show stopper” Lacker, and Thomas “sooner rather than later” Hoenig (speech).
On the flip side, we heard from William “extended period” Dudley (speech - try searching it for “not well founded”) and Daniel ...
Banks Reducing Lending to Small Businesses
Calculated Risk —
... There is more on small businesses including excerpts from NY Fed President William Dudley's speech: A Bit Better, But Very Far From Best, and from Atlanta Fed research economist Melinda Pitts: ...
The Bank Lending Channel
Economist's View —
... may be hard to see at first glance, but the graph shows the "disproportionate effect the recession has had on very small businesses." In 2001, only 9% of the job losses came from small businesses, while in the current recession - where credit problems are a much larger factor - small business accounts for 45% of lost jobs. Part of the discussion of the graph notes this comment from William Dudley, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of
New York: In a speech
yesterday,... he said:
"For small business borrowers, there are ...
Knakal: Resurgence of Institutional Capital
Manhattan Real Estate: New York City Real Estate Tips —
... the fear trades window was about 2-3 months (Feb, March, into early April) before the market saw a re-emergence of buyers and bids started to price out systemic risk. We found out later which months ultimately saw the sharpest deals.
Last check saw Manhattan office vacancy rates at 11.1%, a five year high, with rents falling 5.2% from the 2nd quarter and down 22% from the year ago period; via Bloomberg.
Calculated Risk adds some thoughts from NY Fed President William Dudley: "First, the capitalization rate—the ratio of income to ...
Open Mouth Operations cont.
self-evident —
... Dudley said that “things have gone pretty well” and that the emergency programs are shrinking naturally. Made earlier comments that worries about inflation are “not well-founded”. Dove. ...
