econbrowser.com - 20 days ago
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(Warning: Might be considered "wonky" by some) In many economic analyses, one wants to isolate the "business cycle" component of macroeconomic series. Here is one such series, which has had a detrending technique applied to it. Try to guess what it is.
Figure 1
The above series is the ...
Guest post: Economic recovery and the perverse math of GDP reporting
nakedcapitalism.com 5/8/2009 —
Submitted by Edward Harrison of the site Credit Writedowns Now that everyone is talking about greens hoots and the potential for economic recovery, I thought I would run through the statistics of U.S. GDP with you. The reason I am bringing ...
Tracking the Consumption Decline
econbrowser.com 9/10/2009 — The new semester has begun, and I was reviewing economic trends in my macro courses. In my lectures, I highlighted the sharp drop-off in consumption. In the following, I discuss how well my predictions for consumption from last November have held up.
What Does the Collapse of US Imports and Exports Collapse Signify?
econbrowser.com 5/5/2009 —
The Collapse in Relation to GDP
In an earlier post, I discussed the startling decline in US imports [0] . Brad Setser has also reported on this phenomenon. This decline is not restricted to the United States, as noted in an OECD report released ...
Recession Dating: Some People Are Going to Be Surprised
econbrowser.com 12/2/2008 — The typical Econbrowser reader might not be surprised at the NBER decision -- but some others will. From a May 2008 WSJ article:
"The data are pretty clear that we are not in a recession," Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Edward Lazear told a ...
Good News and Bad News from the GDP release
econbrowser.com 8/1/2009 — Some additional observations (see Jim Hamilton's take , as well as others ) on the GDP release: (1) the five year revision indicates that GDP was larger than we thought, but it also declined faster in 2009Q1; (2) GDP growth was lower throughout 2008 ...
The End of the Official Recession?
calculatedriskblog.com 9/16/2009 — First, a nice mention in Newsweek (thank you): The Financial Meltdown in Words (see slide 4 for a quote from Feb 2005, ht Matthew, Eric) On the end of the recession, from Bloomberg: Bernanke Says U.S. Recession ‘Very Likely’ Has Ended “Even though ...
Are We in a Recession?
economistsview.typepad.com 12/5/2008 — In case you had any doubt, according the the NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee, yes, we are in a recession:
Determination of the December 2007
Peak in Economic Activity, NBER : The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the
National Bureau of ...
When Did the Recession Begin?
crossingwallstreet.com 11/12/2008 — The common media definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. Technically, that’s not correct. For example, at the beginning of this decade, we never had two straight quarter of falling GDP, but it certainly felt like ...
Some Additional Observations on the 2008Q3 Advance GDP Release
econbrowser.com 10/31/2008 — If you went no further than noticing that the q/q annualized growth rate of -0.3% was faster than the -0.5 in the Bloomberg consensus, you might have taken this as good news. I'm not going to say it wasn't good news (relatively speaking), although ...
More on Defense Spending
econbrowser.com 11/1/2008 — In my last post on the 08Q3 GDP release , I noted the remarkable contribution of defense spending. Here is a little more detail on the growth rates of defense spending on goods and services on a NIPA basis.
Figure 1: Defense spending (blue), ...
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