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becker-posner-blog.com - 1/12/2009

On the Obama Stimulus Plan-Becker

— becker-posner-blog.com — If the government increased its spending on infrastructure when the economy has full employment, its main impact would likely be to draw labor, capital, and raw materials away from various other activities. In effect, increased government spending ... (more) On the Obama Stimulus Plan-Becker

Government

Barack Obama

Gross Domestic Product

Comments vote downundo vote up Greg Mankiw's Blog found this 1/12/2009found this

57

econbrowser.com - 1/3/2009

The oil shock and recession of 2008: Part 2

— econbrowser.com — In my previous post , I presented evidence that the oil price increase over 2007:H2-2008:H1 made a significant contribution to the slowdown in consumption spending in general and decline in spending on domestic automobiles in particular. Here I ... (more) The oil shock and recession of 2008: Part 2

Commodities

Recession

Oil

Gross Domestic Product

Comments vote downundo vote up Institutional Economics found this 1/3/2009found this

4

econbrowser.com - 1/10/2009

Is the Implementation Lag for Infrastructure Investment a Problem?

— econbrowser.com — There's been a lot of discussion about how the lack of "shovel-ready" infrastructure projects puts a constraint on government investment spending as a mode for delivering stimulus, since most infrastructure projects take a long time to plan and ... (more) Is the Implementation Lag for Infrastructure Investment ...

Commodities

Gross Domestic Product

Recession

David Romer

Comments vote downundo vote up Short-Term Trading found this 1/10/2009found this

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Paul Krugman and Okun's "Law"
Mises Economics Blog — ... Even though Paul Krugman on many occasions has trashed Austrian Economics, nonetheless he is not afraid to take an a priori position on his "pet stimulus." Unfortunately, he refers to "Okun's Law" which really is no "law" at all, but rather a empirical proposition based upon government-created aggregates. ...

Krugman Runs Stimulus Numbers and Finds Obama Plan Wanting
naked capitalism — ... in a world of compromise and head fakes. Paul Krugman has analyzed the stimulus plan as it now stands, using accepted techniques (various multipliers for various types of spending) and finds it falls well short of its objectives. Given the determination of the Obama crowd to jolt the economy into some semblance of life, this strongly suggests that towards the end of the year, more stimulus measures will be on the table, with large dollar figures attached to them. From Krugman: Bit by bit we’re getting information on the Obama stimulus plan, enough ...

morning commentary
EconLog: Library of Economics and Liberty — Paul Krugman says that we need a big fiscal stimulus. He writes, Unemployment is currently about 7 percent, and heading much higher; Obama himself says that absent stimulus it could go into double digits. Suppose that we're looking at an economy that, absent stimulus, would have an average unemployment rate of 9 percent over the next two years Krugman says a lot more, but I have quoted the key part of the argument. An unemployment rate of 9 percent for two years would be a really long, large deviation from full employment. I think that (a) we are unlikely to have such a long, ...

links for 2009-01-07
Economist's View — Is the new economic geography passé? - voxeu.org Why Wait to Raise Top Tax Rates? - Consider the Evidence Neglected Stimulus Ideas - Jeff Grogger Stimulus arithmetic (wonkish but important) - Paul Krugman Utah Explores Antitrust Lawsuit Against the B.C.S. - NYTimes.com The FDIC sells failed IndyMac Bank too soon—and for too little - Daniel Gross Fed Fears Long Recession - Calculated Risk Yeas And Nays On Obama’s Stimulus Tax ...

More (less) on the costs of stimulus
TRUTH ON THE MARKET — ... right and the mix of spending and tax cuts currently proposed also makes sense. Yeah, roughly $800,000,000,000, give or take a few zeros.  Y’know, back of the envelope.  Seems about right.  Good enough for government work.  Maybe throw in an extra $100,000,000,000 in case I forgot to carry the one. Can someone point me to the relevant math that supports this conclusion? Here’s Robert Reich .  I looked for a link to his analysis, but it must be broken. Better is Paul Krugman here . Also here and here .  This has so many holes in it it’s Swiss ...

Another Boost for the Economy?
Economist's View — ... Seriously, the economy isn’t doing all that much worse than a number of people warned was probable. And the whole political economy thing was, sadly, predictable: ...

No Amount of Stimulus Will Work
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis — ... never mind the hoocoodanodes and ayatollahyaseaux. What’s important now is that we don’t compound the understimulus mistake by adopting what Biden seems to be proposing — namely, a wait and see approach. Fiscal stimulus takes time. If we wait to see whether round one did the trick, round two won’t have much chance of doing a lot of good before late 2010 or beyond.The above is not much more that an "I told you so" referback to Stimulus arithmetic (wonkish but important). I see the following scenario: a weak stimulus plan, ...

Paul Krugman: Too-Small a Stimulus
J. Bradford DeLong's Grasping Reality with All Eight Tentacles — ... Paul Krugman: Stimulus arithmetic (wonkish but important): January 2009 : Bit by bit we’re getting information on the Obama stimulus plan, enough to start making back-of-the-envelope estimates of impact. The bottom line is this: we’re probably looking at a plan that will shave less than 2 percentage points off the average unemployment rate for the next two years, and possibly quite a lot less. This raises real concerns about whether the incoming administration is lowballing its plans in an attempt to get bipartisan consensus.... ...

links for 2009-10-04
J. Bradford DeLong's Grasping Reality with All Eight Tentacles — ... Paul Krugman (January 2009): Stimulus arithmetic (wonkish but important) I see the following scenario: a weak stimulus plan, perhaps even weaker than what we’re talking about now, is crafted to win those extra GOP ...