econbrowser.com - 3/1/2009
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How low can stock prices go, and how worried should you be?
Since 1946, in an average year the stocks in the S&P500; offered a 3.5% dividend and went up in price 2% faster than inflation, for a combined real yield of 5.5%. At that rate, if you reinvested your dividends, you might expect to ...
online.barrons.com - 2/28/2009
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online.barrons.com —
THE GREAT DEPRESSION. THOSE CHILLING WORDS HAVE BECOME
something of a staple of economic utterance these days,
enjoying promiscuous use by both those dour souls who cry out that the end of the world is nigh and those determinedly smiley types eager to ...
(more)
The Not-So-Great Depression
paul.kedrosky.com - 2/27/2009
footnoted.org - 2/24/2009
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footnoted.org —
It’s 10K week here at footnoted which means
lots and lots of filings. And one of the
themes we’re finding pretty interesting is the number of companies that seem to be mentioning the Great Depression in their filings. So much so that ...
(more)
Feeling greatly depressed?
Comments
Blog Reactions
Jim Hamilton Says He's Happy Owning Stocks
EconLog: Library of Economics and Liberty —
The argument is here . I don't think that the future is going to resemble the past. That doesn't mean I'm out of stocks, but I'm not going to buy an index fund the way I used to. I think a lot of industries that are represented in the major stock indexes will not be there when the long slump is over with. I currently think that I can beat index investing over a ten-year horizon. We'll see. I don't yet see which companies or industries I want to bet on. But I know I don't want to bet on financials or old media companies. I should point out that the informal consensus ...
Sunday links: stop asking already
Abnormal Returns —
... “How low can stock prices go, and how worried should you be?” (Econbrowser) ...
links for 2009-03-02
Economist's View —
... Baseline Scenario
Weekly economic wrap-up: still heading down quickly - News N Economics
What Comes After a Golden Age? - Economic Principals
Fun in Kansas City - Michael Mandel - BusinessWeek
Shlaes and Mandel - Arnold Kling
A.I.G. Is Reported Set for More U.S. Aid - NYTimes.com
Gary Makes a Good Point on the Invisible hand - Adam Smith's Lost Legacy
Stock prices and fundamentals - Econbrowser
Links 3/2/09
naked capitalism —
... reader Betsy). Residential real estate is sold pretty much solely by auction in Australia. Clearance rates in Sydney got a shot in the arm due to government intervention, but had been in the 50-60% range. In Brisbane, it's in the low 30s. But the article presents auctions as a panacea. Global policy shortcomings will cost us dear Wolfgang Munchau, Financial Times Deutsche Bank analyzes oil production costs Oil & Gas Journal (hat tip reader Michael) Stock prices and fundamentals Jim Hamilton, Econbrowser The curious art of stress ...
Monday morning links
The Mess That Greenspan Made —
... Must Die So the U.S. Economy Can Live - Bloomberg • Is US response to financial crisis strong enough? - CSM • Fair value: BoA shares - FT Alphaville • Jim Rogers Doesn't Mince Words About the Crisis - BusinessWeek MARKETS/INVESTING • Oil drops below $43 on economic pessimism - Reuters • Plenty of Room for Gold to Go Higher - Seeking Alpha • Smart traders know oil's retreat is temporary - MarketWatch • Stock prices and fundamentals - EconBrowser • Deutsche Bank analyzes oil production ...
Does this rally signal the bottom?
The Curious Investor —
... EconBrowser presents an analysis of expected dividend reinvested, stock market returns if we were truly to spiral into “The Great Depression II” ...
Related Content
N/A
foreignpolicy.com 3/30/2009 — I n the Great Depression, as in the current economic crisis, the downturn was particularly severe because of a lack of leadership in the international order. The dominant financial power of the 19th century, Britain, was financially exhausted by the ...
Not the Great Depression 2.0
dmarron.com 5/29/2009 — UPDATE: Please see two related posts: “The Long U” and “A Plane Crash Averted?”
The Great Depression was an unspeakably bad time for the U.S. economy. I know that sounds obvious, but it seems necessary to say given all ...
"From Bubble to Depression?"
economistsview.typepad.com 4/6/2009 — Steven Gjerstad and Vernon L. Smith argue that the "events of the past 10
years have an eerie similarity to the period leading up to the Great
Depression." More specifically, their argument is that contrary to the usual
explanation that ...
Paul Krugman: Fighting Off Depression
economistsview.typepad.com 1/5/2009 — Will Congress do what's needed to stop the economy's downward spiral? (Related:
Obama
Plan Includes $300 Billion in Tax Cuts "to win over Congressional skeptics
worried that he was too focused on government spending." Guess who the ...
World Economy Falling Faster Than in 1929-1930
nakedcapitalism.com 4/7/2009 — Barry Eichengreen, an expert on the Great Depression, and Kevin O'Rourke, take issue with the notion that the current downturn is less severe than the Great Depression. While the slump in the US is not as bad, that mis-states the global picture. ...
My Senior Seminar on the Great Depression
austrianeconomists.typepad.com 1/20/2009 — In what was either blind luck or remarkable foresight, over a year ago, I agreed to teach a senior seminar this spring, and I decided to do it on the Great Depression. With the events of the last few months, that has turned out to be a very timely ...
Hoover did it!
gregmankiw.blogspot.com 4/4/2009 — ULCA economist Lee Ohanian sends me a paper called "What - or Who - Started the Great Depression?" with the following conclusion: The defining characteristic of the Great Depression is a substantial and chronic excess supply of labor, with ...
Call Off Depression 2.0
paul.kedrosky.com 3/18/2009 — Pace my earlier post about an uptick in short-term economic data, here is a piece from Reuters late today. I am still of the view that we have the current rally, potentially to considerably higher levels on relief and better short-term U.S. data, and ...
"A Second Great Depression is Still Possible"
economistsview.typepad.com 10/14/2009 — Let's hope Thomas Palley, who says "a second Great Depression remains a real
possibility," is wrong. My best guess is that he is (though I don't expect a quick recovery, particularly for labor). But I suppose I " should
never ...
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