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The 2009Q3 Advance GDP Release and Stimulus Measures
Econbrowser — ... government benefits for unemployment assistance, for student aid, and for nutritional assistance; these special benefits raised disposable income about $49 billion in the third quarter and about $35 billion in the second quarter. ARRA also funded grants (such as Medicaid) and capital grants (such as highway construction) to state and local governments of about $75 billion in the third quarter and $85 billion in the second quarter. Mark Zandi also testified. His testimony included this interesting table, reporting estimates of expenditures. ...

The Recession Is Over!
J. Bradford DeLong's Grasping Reality with All Eight Tentacles — Mark Zandi on the Great Recession: http://jec.senate.gov/index.cfm?FuseAction=Files.View&FileStore_id=c71959bb-2a15-4834-a6a2-a16646d17a85: The Great Recession has finally given way to recovery. This downturn will go into the record books as the longest, broadest and most severe since the Great Depression (see Table 1). The recession was twice the length of ...

Mark Zandi on the Great Recession
Calculated Risk — Testimony from Mark Zandi of Economy.com: The Impact of the Recovery Act on Economic Growth (ht Professor Brad DeLong). A few excerpts: The Great Recession has finally given way to recovery. This downturn will go into the record books as the longest, broadest and most severe since the Great Depression (see Table 1). The recession was twice the length of the average economic contraction, and it dragged down nearly every industry and region in the country. Its final toll in terms of increased unemployment and falling real GDP will be greater than that seen during any other recession on record. ... The housing market crash that was at the ...

Economic Outlook: Possible Upside Surprises, Downside Risks
Calculated Risk — As I've noted several times, my general outlook is for GDP growth to be decent in Q4 (similar to Q3) and for sluggish and choppy GDP growth in 2010. I've been asked to list some possible upside surprises, and downside risks, to this forecast. Possible Upside Surprises: Consumer spending. One of the key reasons I think growth will be sluggish in 2010 is because I expect the personal saving rate to increase as households rebuild their balance sheets and reduce their debt burden. But you never know. As San Francisco Fed President Dr. Yellen said yesterday: "Consumers have surprised us in the past with their free-spending ways and it’s ...

Will Their be Appetite for Another Stimulus Plan?
EconomPic — Calculated Risk has a nice post detailing the Possible Upside Surprises, Downside Risks going forward. One area [frequently] mentioned is that only 1/3 of the fiscal stimulus has been spent to date. Below are the details how the ~$180 billion fiscal stimulus has been spent. But while the impact of the stimulus has been HUGE (Mark Zandi, Chief Economist of Moody's Economy.com estimates the stimulus contributed ~3% to Q2 '09 GDP and 3.5% to Q3 '09 GDP before the Joint Economic Committee), much of the impact is now fading (a vast amount of the impact was due to pulling demand forward). Calculated Risk details the potential drag and the why ...