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Calculated Risk: Macroblog: "The growing case for a jobless recovery"
EconLog: Library of Economics and Liberty: A Recalculation Data Point
Reactions
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And here's Macroblog on the growing case for a jobless recovery: http://tinyurl.com/yg7o4dn 26 days ago |
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RT @ShamelessShamus: Obama's jobless recovery - http://bit.ly/1CX9mp 30 days ago |
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Fed Reserve of Atlanta economist makes strong case that recovery will be jobless. Sobering, but essential, read: http://tinyurl.com/yg7o4dn 10/27/2009 |
Macroblog: "The growing case for a jobless recovery"
Calculated Risk —
Dave Altig writes at Macroblog: The growing case for a jobless recovery Dr. Altig reviews several recent Macroblog posts, and adds: The percentage of employee separations labeled permanent is at a recorded high. Underneath the usual total unemployment numbers are the reasons an individual is unemployed: You are on temporary layoff; you quit your job; you have reentered the labor market and have yet to find a job; or you are entering the job market for the first time and have yet to find a job. Or, finally, you have been permanently ...
A Recalculation Data Point
EconLog: Library of Economics and Liberty —
From David Altig , via Mark Thoma . [image] This statistic, the percentage of job losses that are permanent, is a useful way to distinguish Keynesian recessions from Recalculations. In a Keynesian recession, you are temporarily laid off because of excess inventories and deficient aggregate demand. You wait to be recalled by your firm. This was true of recessions from the end of the second World War through the 1980 recession. Even the 1975 recession, which was a "supply shock" (higher oil prices, requiring some permanent readjustments), had a relatively low share of ...
"The Growing Case for a Jobless Recovery"
Economist's View —
... Tim Duy organizes the
Oregon Economic Forum,
and this year he invited David Altig of the Atlanta Fed to talk about monetary policy. I'll be
discussing fiscal policy, and one of the questions I'll address is whether more
stimulus is needed. The poor condition of job markets will be a key part of that
discussion, and this post of David's at macroblog provides additional evidence that the odds of a jobless
recovery are increasing:
The growing case for a jobless recovery, by David Altig: The
Wall
Street ...
Thursday morning links
The Mess That Greenspan Made —
... 2009 high - AP Gold Declines as Rally to Record Spurs Sales - Bloomberg High-water marks for newsletters and gold - MarketWatch World markets drop on China growth worrries - AP House Agriculture panel approves derivatives legislation - MarketWatch Kass: The Earnings Season Racket - TheStreet.com Be wary of the gold trade… - Reuters ECONOMY Jobless Claims Rose More Than Forecast - Bloomberg The growing case for a jobless recovery - MacroBlog Pelosi explores for more economic ...
Scary labor market chart of the day
The Mess That Greenspan Made —
Via this item at David Altig's MacroBlog comes one of the scarier labor market charts to have crossed my computer screen in recent months. Current record highs for "permanent" job loss are right up there with other similar long-term unemployment indicators bringing into question just what kind of economic recovery might be possible from here. ...
Thursday links: demand for yield
Abnormal Returns —
... On the prospects of a job-less recovery: “The percentage of employee separations labeled permanent is at a recorded high.” (macroblog) ...
Afternoon Reading
The Big Picture —
These look interesting:
• Kass: The Earnings Season Racket (The Street.com)
• Investors still struggling to put fear behind them (Reuters)
• The growing case for a jobless recovery (Federal Reserve Of Atlanta Blog)
• Home-building rises, but worries persist (WaPo)
• Dollar hegemony for another century (Telegraph)
• Principles written in the blood and tears of lost money (W-Street)
• They Shoot Porn Stars, Don’t They? (Susannah Breslin)
• ...
Further reading
FT Alphaville —
... while the rest of us muddle along?” - The growing case for a jobless recovery . - “A friend of mine had breakfast with multi-Billionaire ...
Links Compiled Between Innings of the Yankees/Angels Game
Across the Curve —
Too Big Too Fail.
For all the hoople investment advisors who push a buy and hold strategy in equities. Read this. It failed. Miserably.
Treasury Auctions Impend but WSJ says Buyers in the Wings.
Dave Altig of the Atlanta Fed and Macroblog on the jobless recovery.
Professor James Hamilton on the “new tools ” of monetary policy.
Latin American countries act to stem appreciation of their currencies. ...
A Response to "The growing case for a jobless recovery"
The Bonddad Blog —
David Altig of the Atlanta Fed, who also blogs at Macroblog, wrote a long note describing "The Growing Case for a Jobless Recovery". It's only fair that I write about a take contrary to my own, and add some further comments: ...
Fed Watch: Sustainable Growth?
Economist's View —
... Add in another
concern - the jobless (or perhaps job-loss) recovery. The
underlying rate of economic growth (firms look through the Clunkers boost)
remains well below rates sufficient to generate job
growth. Indeed,
as David Altig notes, the jobless recovery is almost certainly upon us once
again, and if anything will prod the Administration to initiate a second
stimulus package, it will be the prospect of sustained double-digit unemployment
- an outcome that will only be aggravated if Chinese policy is to take advantage
of the recession to consolidate ...
Prospects for Employment under Differing Econometric Specifications
Econbrowser —
... 1970's and early 1980's, because of the depth of the downturn. That specification (which would not fit well for the past two recoveries) yields the salmon colored line in Figure 4, and predicts strong job creation in 2009Q2.
James Hamilton says recent output indicators (as of 10/18) are not consistent with a jobless recovery. Paul Ashworth says employment has already "stabilized", while Robert Gordon predicts a resumption of employment growth in 2010Q1. David Altig at Macroblog and Mary Daly, Bart Hobijn, Joyce Kwok at SF Fed enumerate the ...
