Will rising oil prices derail the recovery?
econbrowser.com 24 days ago — Last April I described new research on the role of oil prices in the recent recession. Here's an update on what's happened since then. In a paper presented at the Brookings Institution last spring , I examined the post-sample forecasting ...

Every recovery is the same; each recovery is different
macroblog.typepad.com 8/7/2009 — Two weeks ago, macroblog looked at the rather pessimistic expectations for what the economic recovery might look like this time around. Included was part of the narrative noting that structural adjustments are likely to impede a quick snapback in ...

On Revisions and on Conditioning
econbrowser.com 11/1/2009 — Both have to be "handled with care". Revisions We're all tempted to make predictions on the basis of the last data point. And even more difficult to resist is the temptation to make definitive statements on the basis of data that are sure to ...

Jobless Recovery?
aiki14.com 10/4/2009 — So you hear the term “Jobless Recovery” in the News, I want to take a look at the concept. The first thing that comes to my mind is the term is an oxymoron. After a little thought I think it is necessary, in order to have a meaningful ...

The financial return on energy invested
europe.theoildrum.com 6/23/2009 — Global GDP data from the USDA. Primary energy data and energy prices from the BP statistical reveiw of world energy 2009. Global GDP has grown steadily and continuously since WWII, in step with a growing global population and primary energy ...

Is Germany Dependent on Exports to Grow?
fistfulofeuros.net 9/30/2009 — The analysis that follows should really be taken along with Edward’s recent thoughts on the Global Imbalances situation as well as his latest economic survey of the current state of play in the German economy . Essentially, I am going to have a look at what is, arguably, one of the more ...

Good economic news?
econbrowser.com 4/30/2009 — Today's GDP numbers were about what I was expecting. Although economic activity continued its sharp decline, if we continue to follow the script, things should improve. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today that U.S. real GDP fell at a ...

A V-shaped recession?
econbrowser.com 7/2/2009 — As James Morley has pointed out, often a sharp economic downturn is followed by an equally sharp economic recovery. One reason for that is the liquidation of inventories that accompanies any recession and restocking that takes place in recovery. What ...

The 4 percent solution
krugman.blogs.nytimes.com 9/29/2009 — If we get real health care reform AND we get a sane political scene the long-term fiscal outlook is serious but not scary.

My Bizarre Monetary Theory, Continued
econlog.econlib.org 9/25/2009 — (September 22, 2009 08:32 AM, by Arnold Kling) Before I respond to Bryan's comments, let me first recommend the two Scott Sumner papers that he mentions. This paper develops a theory that cultural values drive economic policy, which in turn drives ...