economist.com - 10/29/2009
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The recession probably ended in June - Free exchange
calculatedriskblog.com - 10/23/2009
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calculatedriskblog.com —
From Bloomberg: U.K. Economy Unexpectedly Shrinks in Longest
Slump GDP fell 0.4 percent from the previous three...
months, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. ... The economy has now shrunk over six quarters, the most since records ...
(more)
U.K.: Recession Not Over
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Thursday links: uncorrelated returns
Abnormal Returns —
... or adviser to a principal investor.” (Dealscape)
Banks are holding government securities, not making loans to Main Street. (Clusterstock)
Bailing out GMAC is a form of insanity. (Mean Street)
Is it sustainable? Parsing the Q3 GDP numbers. (Big Picture, Capital Spectator, 24/7 Wall St., Free exchange, Atlantic Business, Real Time ...
links for 2009-10-29
Economist's View —
... Menzie Chin on futures as predictors of commodity prices - Greed, Green and Grains
The recession probably ended in June - Free exchange ...
Friday links: slow capital
Abnormal Returns —
... How the Feds could have obtained a haircut on AIG (AIG) CDS contracts. (Epicurean Dealmaker)
With 3Q GDP figures in the rear view mirror: Is the recession over? (Calculated Risk, Mean Street, WSJ, Economist’s View, The Stash, Floyd Norris, Econbrowser, Free exchange, DJ Market Talk)
The case against Starbucks ( ...
Prospects for Employment under Differing Econometric Specifications
Econbrowser —
... GDP and employment holds), but the recovery will be more akin to that of the 1970's and early 1980's, because of the depth of the downturn. That specification (which would not fit well for the past two recoveries) yields the salmon colored line in Figure 4, and predicts strong job creation in 2009Q2.
James Hamilton says recent output indicators (as of 10/18) are not consistent with a jobless recovery. Paul Ashworth says employment has already "stabilized", while Robert Gordon predicts a resumption of employment growth in 2010Q1. David Altig at ...
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Economist: Already lost - Free exchange
economist.com 2/20/2009 — YESTERDAY, I alluded to Japan's woeful economic performance since the early 1990s and suggested that in the absence of bold action, much of the developed world could face lost decades. Then today, Mark Thoma links to Michael Mandel, who writes:
The Recession is Very Likely Over? Don’t Bet on it!
powellperspective.wordpress.com 9/17/2009 — This article is right on! Until small business, the foundation of this country's business community, is put back on its feet there is no true recovery! The process is going to be slow and difficult. But, if we stick together and help each other we can all come out of this on the better side!
U.S. Recession Probabilities
economistsview.typepad.com 10/2/2009 — HTML clipboard My colleague Jeremy Piger calculated new US recession
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